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Global Autonomous Heavy-duty Truck Market Opportunity Analysis
Global Autonomous Heavy-duty Truck Market Opportunity Analysis
~8,000 Level 4 Autonomous Trucks are Expected by 2025 Globally, Yet Regulations and Liability Framework Remain a Major Challenge
02-Apr-2019
Global
Market Research
Description
Frost & Sullivan's research service on the regulatory framework towards autonomous driving in heavy-duty truck provides detailed market and technology trends, challenges, and forecasts from 2017 to 2025 at a global level. The study identifies and analyzes the key goals and progression needed to realize autonomous semi-trucks by 2025. It outlines the cost and competitive ecosystem over the forecast period, and examines the current testing environment for automated vehicles globally. It also estimates the adoption of different levels of automated trucks in 2025 and beyond. Autonomous driving in heavy duty trucks will rely on four key pillars for its potential introduction into the market; regulations, innovation (technology), infrastructure, and societal acceptance. Global regions who thrive in these four categories will become early adopters and market drivers of autonomous driving. Currently, there has been strong development in the advancement of technological capabilities towards autonomous trucks. All major OEMs and some Tier I suppliers have already demonstrated the ability to operate a level 3 autonomous truck on public roads. Although the technology components to enable a level 3 autonomous truck are available today, there are still many challenges ahead to prove its reliability and safety in any operation condition. SAE level 4 autonomous trucks are the target solution of many leading OEMs and are expected to be the first commercialized autonomous level seen for on-road usage. On the other hand, level-5-enabled trucks for on road applications are not expected until after 2030. Moreover, autonomous regulations remain in their infancy compared to autonomous driving technologies. Regulations have continued to move slowly to adapt to the ever-changing needs for autonomous truck testing effectively hindering its progression. Regardless of technological advancement, regulations and liability will remain the most pressing issue towards realizing level 3 autonomous trucks by 2025. Each global region is expected to have its own legislative framework supporting autonomous trucks. However, these polices must be harmonized throughout the entire region and cannot remain disparate between bordering countries or states. The areas of need surrounding autonomous truck regulations, include driver HOS, safety, liability, cyber security, and communication network (e.g., V2V, V2X, DSRC, LTE, and 5G). The current regulations do not cover the unique operating conditions that are present with autonomous truck driving. As a result, a new set of autonomous specific policies will need to be developed in the short term to handle any of these critical issues. All major stakeholders (governments, insurance companies, OEMs, Tier I suppliers, and IT companies) will need to jointly collaborate in developing the proper autonomous legislative standards.
Author: Wallace Lau
Table of Contents
Progression of Automation in HD Trucks
Value Proposition of Automated Commercial Vehicles
Taxonomy of Future Automated Driving Business Models
Summary of Key Findings
Snapshot of Global Automated Truck Adoption
Top 5 Country Readiness for Autonomous Truck Driving
Autonomous Truck Market Value
Autonomous Impact on Commercial Vehicle Industry Outlook
Research Scope
Research Aims and Objectives
Key Questions This Study Will Answer
Research Background
Research Methodology
Automated Driving Definitions
Automation Levels
Functional Features for the Autonomous Truck
Functional Block Diagram of Autonomous Trucks
Key Benefits to Autonomous Driving in Commercial Vehicles
Value Proposition of Automated Commercial Vehicles
Autonomous Penetration Phases by Vocation—Off Highway
Autonomous Penetration Phases by Vocation—On Highway
Key Market Trends Stoking Autonomous Truck Industry
Truck Platooning Benefits and Challenges
Platooning—Phase I and Phase II
Impact of Autonomous Driving on Industry Stakeholders
Impact of Autonomous Driving on Industry Stakeholders
Autonomous Implications—Fleets
Autonomous Implications—Truck Driver
Autonomous Implications—OEM
Autonomous Implications—Liability and Insurance
Autonomous Implications—Cybersecurity in Commercial Vehicles
Key Challenges to Autonomous Driving in Commercial Vehicles
Autonomous On-highway Driving Roadmap
Validation and Testing of Automated Vehicles
Autonomous Implications—Regulatory Framework Needs
Legislative Initiatives for Key US State Testing of Automated CVs
EU Member States’ Initiatives for Testing of Automated CVs
Asia-Pacific and Oceania Initiatives for Testing of Automated Vehicles
Autonomous Truck-readiness of the Top 5 Countries
Analysis of the Autonomous Truck-readiness of the Top 5 Countries
Global Truck Production and OEM Market Share
Snapshot of Global Automated Truck Adoption
Autonomous Truck Market Value
Value Map by Ecosystem Participants
Autonomous Truck Ecosystem
Autonomous Driving Ecosystem in HD Trucks
Building Blocks of an Autonomous Truck
Autonomous Truck Technology Roadmap
Autonomous Truck Technology Roadmap (continued)
Autonomous Technological Investment
V2X Technology Evolution for Piloting Autonomous Trucks
Levels of Autonomous Driving and Sensors
Technology Trend—LiDAR
Impact on the Development of Next-Generation Depth Sensing
Technology Trend—Sensor Fusion in Autonomous HD Trucks
Technology Trend—Deep Learning through Algorithms
Technology Trend—Domain Controllers
Technology Trend—Need for 48V
Future Advances in Hardware and Software Aimed at L5 Automation
Aftermarket Autonomous Kits
Progression of Automation in HD Trucks
Autonomous Development Cost Analysis
Level 3 Autonomous Commercial Vehicle Incremental Cost Analysis
Level 4 Autonomous Commercial Vehicle Incremental Cost Analysis
Growth Opportunity 1—Regulations and Liability
Growth Opportunity 2—Connectivity Solutions
Growth Opportunity 3—Investments and Partnerships
Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth
Conclusions and Future Outlook
4 Big Predictions
List of Acronyms
Market Engineering Methodology
Legal Disclaimer
List of Exhibits
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
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Popular Topics
| Deliverable Type | Market Research |
|---|---|
| No Index | No |
| Podcast | No |
| Author | Wallace Lau |
| Industries | Automotive |
| WIP Number | K28A-01-00-00-00 |
| Is Prebook | No |
| GPS Codes | 9800-A6,9B01-A6,9963-A6,9AF6-A6,9B07-C1 |