Global Autonomous Heavy-duty Truck Market Opportunity Analysis

Global Autonomous Heavy-duty Truck Market Opportunity Analysis

~8,000 Level 4 Autonomous Trucks are Expected by 2025 Globally, Yet Regulations and Liability Framework Remain a Major Challenge

RELEASE DATE
02-Apr-2019
REGION
Global
Deliverable Type
Market Research
Research Code: K28A-01-00-00-00
SKU: AU01816-GL-MR_22967
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Description

Frost & Sullivan's research service on the regulatory framework towards autonomous driving in heavy-duty truck provides detailed market and technology trends, challenges, and forecasts from 2017 to 2025 at a global level. The study identifies and analyzes the key goals and progression needed to realize autonomous semi-trucks by 2025. It outlines the cost and competitive ecosystem over the forecast period, and examines the current testing environment for automated vehicles globally. It also estimates the adoption of different levels of automated trucks in 2025 and beyond. Autonomous driving in heavy duty trucks will rely on four key pillars for its potential introduction into the market; regulations, innovation (technology), infrastructure, and societal acceptance. Global regions who thrive in these four categories will become early adopters and market drivers of autonomous driving. Currently, there has been strong development in the advancement of technological capabilities towards autonomous trucks. All major OEMs and some Tier I suppliers have already demonstrated the ability to operate a level 3 autonomous truck on public roads. Although the technology components to enable a level 3 autonomous truck are available today, there are still many challenges ahead to prove its reliability and safety in any operation condition. SAE level 4 autonomous trucks are the target solution of many leading OEMs and are expected to be the first commercialized autonomous level seen for on-road usage. On the other hand, level-5-enabled trucks for on road applications are not expected until after 2030. Moreover, autonomous regulations remain in their infancy compared to autonomous driving technologies. Regulations have continued to move slowly to adapt to the ever-changing needs for autonomous truck testing effectively hindering its progression. Regardless of technological advancement, regulations and liability will remain the most pressing issue towards realizing level 3 autonomous trucks by 2025. Each global region is expected to have its own legislative framework supporting autonomous trucks. However, these polices must be harmonized throughout the entire region and cannot remain disparate between bordering countries or states. The areas of need surrounding autonomous truck regulations, include driver HOS, safety, liability, cyber security, and communication network (e.g., V2V, V2X, DSRC, LTE, and 5G). The current regulations do not cover the unique operating conditions that are present with autonomous truck driving. As a result, a new set of autonomous specific policies will need to be developed in the short term to handle any of these critical issues. All major stakeholders (governments, insurance companies, OEMs, Tier I suppliers, and IT companies) will need to jointly collaborate in developing the proper autonomous legislative standards.

Author: Wallace Lau

Table of Contents

Progression of Automation in HD Trucks

Value Proposition of Automated Commercial Vehicles

Taxonomy of Future Automated Driving Business Models

Summary of Key Findings

Snapshot of Global Automated Truck Adoption

Top 5 Country Readiness for Autonomous Truck Driving

Autonomous Truck Market Value

Autonomous Impact on Commercial Vehicle Industry Outlook

Research Scope

Research Aims and Objectives

Key Questions This Study Will Answer

Research Background

Research Methodology

Automated Driving Definitions

Automation Levels

Functional Features for the Autonomous Truck

Functional Block Diagram of Autonomous Trucks

Key Benefits to Autonomous Driving in Commercial Vehicles

Value Proposition of Automated Commercial Vehicles

Autonomous Penetration Phases by Vocation—Off Highway

Autonomous Penetration Phases by Vocation—On Highway

Key Market Trends Stoking Autonomous Truck Industry

Truck Platooning Benefits and Challenges

Platooning—Phase I and Phase II

Impact of Autonomous Driving on Industry Stakeholders

Impact of Autonomous Driving on Industry Stakeholders

Autonomous Implications—Fleets

Autonomous Implications—Truck Driver

Autonomous Implications—OEM

Autonomous Implications—Liability and Insurance

Autonomous Implications—Cybersecurity in Commercial Vehicles

Key Challenges to Autonomous Driving in Commercial Vehicles

Autonomous On-highway Driving Roadmap

Validation and Testing of Automated Vehicles

Autonomous Implications—Regulatory Framework Needs

Legislative Initiatives for Key US State Testing of Automated CVs

EU Member States’ Initiatives for Testing of Automated CVs

Asia-Pacific and Oceania Initiatives for Testing of Automated Vehicles

Autonomous Truck-readiness of the Top 5 Countries

Analysis of the Autonomous Truck-readiness of the Top 5 Countries

Global Truck Production and OEM Market Share

Snapshot of Global Automated Truck Adoption

Autonomous Truck Market Value

Value Map by Ecosystem Participants

Autonomous Truck Ecosystem

Autonomous Driving Ecosystem in HD Trucks

Building Blocks of an Autonomous Truck

Autonomous Truck Technology Roadmap

Autonomous Truck Technology Roadmap (continued)

Autonomous Technological Investment

V2X Technology Evolution for Piloting Autonomous Trucks

Levels of Autonomous Driving and Sensors

Technology Trend—LiDAR

Impact on the Development of Next-Generation Depth Sensing

Technology Trend—Sensor Fusion in Autonomous HD Trucks

Technology Trend—Deep Learning through Algorithms

Technology Trend—Domain Controllers

Technology Trend—Need for 48V

Future Advances in Hardware and Software Aimed at L5 Automation

Aftermarket Autonomous Kits

Progression of Automation in HD Trucks

Autonomous Development Cost Analysis

Level 3 Autonomous Commercial Vehicle Incremental Cost Analysis

Level 4 Autonomous Commercial Vehicle Incremental Cost Analysis

Growth Opportunity 1—Regulations and Liability

Growth Opportunity 2—Connectivity Solutions

Growth Opportunity 3—Investments and Partnerships

Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth

Conclusions and Future Outlook

4 Big Predictions

List of Acronyms

Market Engineering Methodology

Legal Disclaimer

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

Frost & Sullivan's research service on the regulatory framework towards autonomous driving in heavy-duty truck provides detailed market and technology trends, challenges, and forecasts from 2017 to 2025 at a global level. The study identifies and analyzes the key goals and progression needed to realize autonomous semi-trucks by 2025. It outlines the cost and competitive ecosystem over the forecast period, and examines the current testing environment for automated vehicles globally. It also estimates the adoption of different levels of automated trucks in 2025 and beyond. Autonomous driving in heavy duty trucks will rely on four key pillars for its potential introduction into the market; regulations, innovation (technology), infrastructure, and societal acceptance. Global regions who thrive in these four categories will become early adopters and market drivers of autonomous driving. Currently, there has been strong development in the advancement of technological capabilities towards autonomous trucks. All major OEMs and some Tier I suppliers have already demonstrated the ability to operate a level 3 autonomous truck on public roads. Although the technology components to enable a level 3 autonomous truck are available today, there are still many challenges ahead to prove its reliability and safety in any operation condition. SAE level 4 autonomous trucks are the target solution of many leading OEMs and are expected to be the first commercialized autonomous level seen for on-road usage. On the other hand, level-5-enabled trucks for on road applications are not expected until after 2030. Moreover, autonomous regulations remain in their infancy compared to autonomous driving technologies. Regulations have continued to move slowly to adapt to the ever-changing needs for autonomous truck testing effectively hindering its progression. Regardless of technological advancement, regulations and liability will remain the most pressing issue towards realizing level 3 autonomous trucks by 2025. Each global region is expected to have its own legislative framework supporting autonomous trucks. However, these polices must be harmonized throughout the entire region and cannot remain disparate between bordering countries or states. The areas of need surrounding autonomous truck regulations, include driver HOS, safety, liability, cyber security, and communication network (e.g., V2V, V2X, DSRC, LTE, and 5G). The current regulations do not cover the unique operating conditions that are present with autonomous truck driving. As a result, a new set of autonomous specific policies will need to be developed in the short term to handle any of these critical issues. All major stakeholders (governments, insurance companies, OEMs, Tier I suppliers, and IT companies) will need to jointly collaborate in developing the proper autonomous legislative standards. Author: Wallace Lau
More Information
Deliverable Type Market Research
No Index No
Podcast No
Author Wallace Lau
Industries Automotive
WIP Number K28A-01-00-00-00
Is Prebook No
GPS Codes 9800-A6,9B01-A6,9963-A6,9AF6-A6,9B07-C1