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Global Heavy-duty Commercial Vehicle Transmission Market Growth Opportunities
Automated Manual Transmission to Gain Top Share by 2030 and Rise in Refuse Applications Drives the Adoption of Fully Automatic Transmission
25-Nov-2021
North America
Market Research
PC40-01-00-00-00
AU02257-NA-MT_26005
The global transmission market for heavy-duty (HD) commercial vehicles has changed drastically in the past few years. Manual transmission (MT) was the go-to option for all drivers in the North American market due to its robust gears, the expertise required, and low initial cost. However, drivers—especially those new to the industry—have embraced automated manual transmission (AMT), which offers driving ease with no clutch pedal and no gear shifts. Today, AMT holds the major share of the on-highway segment in North American Class 8 trucks. Industry experts even commented that original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in North America and Europe would not offer MT by the decade's end (2030).
The transition toward AMT has yet to happen in China and India, mainly due to initial cost setbacks and a lack of technological awareness. However, Frost & Sullivan expects this to change by mid-decade, with over 60% of Chinese and Indian HD trucks offering AMT by 2030. We project fully automatic transmission (AT) to continue to hold the major market share in the refuse/waste management segment. The waste management segment is forecast to boom—especially in India, where there is a projected exponential growth in metropolitan cities—resulting in the high sale of fully AT for these applications.
Electric powertrains are likely to drive nearly 27% of the global heavy-duty truck (HDT) segment in 2030, leading to a focus on e-transmissions. Unlike conventional transmissions, which are engine-driven and require multiple gears for optimal driving, e-transmissions are motor-driven. They need only 1–2 gears to provide the necessary torque/vehicle cruising requirements. Notably, only Eaton and Volvo have ventured into 6 and 12 gear transmissions, respectively. All other manufacturers use either one shift or two shift transmissions for electric trucks. Several suppliers do not even have a gearbox and have a direct drive technology instead.
In summary, the next decade will be a transformational period for the transmission market. Strategic growth decisions are vital to ensure stakeholders do not get left behind in the technological advancement race. Through this report, Frost & Sullivan provides market insights and growth opportunities that market participants can pursue to enable sustained growth.
Key Issues Addressed
- Who are the major drivetrain suppliers, and what type of transmission do they currently offer to different OEs and across regions?
- What is the future scope of offerings, and what steps do the Tier I and captive transmission suppliers take toward their future offerings?
- Which application will use which transmission type, and what is its role in the shifting trends of transmission technology?
- Which transmission technology will hold a major share in the next decade, and what factors are driving it?
- What is the current landscape in electric transmission, and how will the electric powertrain shape up in the next decade?
Author: Christus Divyan
Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Global Heavy-duty (HD) Commercial Vehicle (CV) Transmission Market
Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™
HD Unit Shipment Forecast by Powertrain and Region
Global Transmission Technologies
Diesel HD Unit Shipment Share by Transmission Type and Region
Diesel HD Unit Shipment Share by Transmission Type and Application
Global Engine Range
Global Transmission Supplier Snapshot
Research Scope
Research Aims and Objectives
Key Questions this Study will Answer
Transmission Technology Segmentation
Transmission—Snapshot and Use Cases
Transmission Market—Key Trends
Transmission Market
Transmission Market (continued)
Transmission Market (continued)
Transmission Market (continued)
Transmission Supplier Details
Future Trends
Transmission Market
Transmission Market (continued)
Transmission Market (continued)
Transmission Supplier Details
Transmission Supplier Details (continued)
Future Trends
Transmission Market
Transmission Market (continued)
Transmission Supplier Details
Future Trends
Transmission Market
Transmission Market (continued)
Transmission Market (continued)
Transmission Supplier Details
Future Trends
Transmission Market
Transmission Market (continued)
Transmission Supplier Details
Future Trends
Captive Suppliers—Snapshot
Company Profile—Eaton
Company Profile—ZF
Company Profile—Allison
Global HDT Forecast—Powertrain Share and Forecast by Region
Electric Powertrain Snapshot—North America
Electric Powertrain Snapshot—Europe
Electric Powertrain Supplier Snapshot
Diesel Powertrain—Transmission Technology Impact on TCOs
Key Takeaways
Growth Opportunity 1—AMT Becomes the Preferred Transmission within the Decade in India and China
Growth Opportunity 1—AMT Becomes the Preferred Transmission within the Decade in India and China (continued)
Growth Opportunity 2—Invest in Advanced Electrification Concepts to Develop Multifaceted Portfolio Offerings for All Segments
Growth Opportunity 2—Invest in Advanced Electrification Concepts to Develop Multifaceted Portfolio Offerings for All Segments (continued)
Growth Opportunity 3—Refuse Application to Boom in India; AT to be the Most Suitable for the Application
Growth Opportunity 3—Refuse Application to Boom in India; AT to be the Most Suitable for the Application (continued)
Your Next Steps
Why Frost, Why Now?
List of Exhibits
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