Global Powertrain Outlook 2021

Global Powertrain Outlook 2021

Powertrain Electrification Offers Future Growth Potential through mHEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs, While Diesel Powertrains are Fast Fading From Organizations’ Technology Strategy

RELEASE DATE
24-Jun-2021
REGION
North America
Research Code: MG04-01-00-00-00
SKU: AU02172-NA-MO_25524
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Description

The global powertrain industry continues to be dominated by internal combustion engines (ICE), specifically, gasoline engines, while diesel engine’s share has been falling since the dieselgate scandal. While the share of IC engines operating on alternate fuels has remained constant, vehicle electrification is on the rise.

Irrespective of the type of powertrain, the primary focus is on driving down emissions and improving fuel economy. To this effect, each region has different priorities and methods on lowering emissions, with engine downsizing, alternate fuels, mild hybrids, full hybrids, Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs), and battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), all finding suitors across the globe and a recent addition to the list being Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV).

Even in powertrain electrification, the fastest growing trend in the last 5 years is that of mild hybridization, using 48V, 24V, and 12V, which plays a supporting role to conventional ICE. This will continue to be the fastest-growing trend in the short-to-medium term, ahead of electric vehicles (BEVs, FCEVs, and PHEV).

Increasing electrification, however, is not limited to propulsion and is often applied to optimize powertrain subsystems. Engine downsizing, for example, is a key area that directly brings down fuel consumption and emissions, and even here, electrification is making a mark with electrified turbocharger for instant response and increased energy recovery.

In a bid to reduce the dependency on fossil fuels and increase the use of renewable energy, the challenge is often the variable supply of renewable energy and its storage. While battery electric vehicles offer a solution for storing excess energy from the grid and supplying it back when required, the use of synthetic fuels offers another method of renewable-energy storage. This form of energy storage enables the use of existing production, storage, and distribution methods while ensuring carbon-neutral mobility.

All the above ensure that despite the high media and public interest in powertrain electrification, ICE will continue as the leading prime mover for at least a couple of decades.

Author: Bharath Kumar Srinivasan

RESEARCH: INFOGRAPHIC

This infographic presents a brief overview of the research, and highlights the key topics discussed in it.
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Table of Contents

Key Highlights of the Global Automotive Powertrain Industry, 2020

Global LV Sales by Region in 2020 and 2021—Snapshot

Global Powertrain Mix—Sales Snapshot

Western Europe—IC Engines Trend: Continued YoY Reduction

US—Growth of SUVs, Trucks, and Large Vehicles

China—Sales Forecast by Powertrain

ICE Outlook—Transition to Zero Emission Zones

Regional Strategy for Testing Procedures

Technology Outlook—Pre-chamber Combustion

Electric Boosting—eCompressor, eTurbo

Challenges Faced by the Global Powertrain Industry Due to COVID-19

The 2020 Global Automotive Powertrain Market—Actuals Versus Forecast

Global Powertrain Industry Historic Sales

Key Predictions for 2021

COVID-19 Impact on World GDP Growth

Global Growth Scenario Analysis—Assumptions

World GDP Growth Under Differing Scenarios

COVID-19 Impact on Key Regions

Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?

The Strategic Imperative 8™

The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on Powertrain Industry

Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Research Scope

Vehicle Segmentation

Market Segmentation

Europe—Change in New Vehicle Registrations, 2020

Europe—Sales by Powertrain, 2020

Europe Top 5 Countries—Passenger Cars Powertrain Trend

Western Europe—IC Engines Trend: Continued YoY Reduction

Western Europe—Gasoline Trend: Passenger Cars

Western Europe—Diesel Trend: Passenger Cars

Western Europe—Diesel Trend: Passenger Cars (continued)

Mild Hybrid Vehicles—Sales Surge to Continue in 2021

Full Hybrid Vehicles—Limited Growth Opportunity

EVs—Rapid Growth in 2020 to Meet CO2 Emission Targets

Europe—Powertrain Highlights Summary

US—Change in New Passenger Car Registrations, 2020

US—Growth of SUVs, Trucks, and Large Vehicles

US—Continued Increase in the Demand for Pickup Trucks

US—Gasoline’s Dominance to Continue

US—SUV and Commercial Van Diesel Segment Trending in 2020

Mild Hybrid Vehicles to Continue to Grow

Full Hybrid Vehicles—Third-largest FHEV Market to Continue to Grow

EVs—BEVs Outselling PHEVs by 3.5 times

US—Powertrain Summary

China—Sales Forecast by Powertrain

China—Sales Breakdown by Powertrain and Models

China—Technology Development Roadmap

China—Emission Standards Outlook

Mild Hybrid Vehicles—mHEV Sales to Continue to Increase in 2021

Full Hybrid Vehicles—New 2021 Regulations Ensure Chinese OEMs Offer Hybrids

EVs—Launch of Affordable EVs to Continue to Drive Sales

China—Powertrain Outlook

South Korea—Change in New Passenger Car Registrations, 2020

South Korea—Sales by Powertrain

Mild Hybrid Vehicles—Short-term Growth Dependent on European OEMs

Full Hybrid Vehicles—Continue to Grow for the 7th Year in a Row

EVs—Market Driven by Government Tax Benefits for Sales Promotion

South Korea—Powertrain Summary and Trends Impacting Powertrains

Japan—Change in New Passenger Car Registrations, 2020

Japan—Powertrain Summary and Trends Impacting Powertrains

Mild Hybrid Vehicles—Niche Market Accounting for Less Than 0.5%

Full Hybrid Vehicles—23.3% Market Share With a Recovery in Q4

EVs—Market Decline for the 3rd Straight Year

Japan—Legislation Summary

India—Change in New Passenger Car Registrations, 2020

India—OEM Sales Performance and Market Share

India—Sales by Powertrain

India—Gasoline-Diesel Equation by OEM

India—Segment-wise Sales and Share

Mild Hybrid Vehicles—12V Systems to Grow

Full Hybrid Vehicles—Continue to be a Scarce Commodity

EVs—Regulations and Policies to Promote EVs Having a Positive Impact

CAFE Regulations—2022 Target to Promote Powertrain Electrification

Indian Automotive Market Summary

Indonesia—Change in New Passenger Car Registrations, 2020

Indonesia—2020 Vehicle Sales by Segment

Thailand—Change in New Passenger Car Registrations, 2020

Malaysia—Change in New Passenger Car Registrations, 2020

ASEAN—Powertrain Summary

Mild Hybrid Vehicles—Growth From Low-cost, Low-voltage mHEV Systems

Full Hybrid Vehicles—Niche Applications Account for 0.2%

EVs—Tax Benefits to Promote EV Sales in Thailand

Technology Roadmap: Powertrain Development Trends

Fuel Economy Improvement: Focus Areas

Regional Strategy for Testing Procedures

Global Passenger Car Technology Adoption Indices—Summary

Technology Outlook—Pre-chamber Combustion

Technology Outlook—SCR Twin Dosing

Electric Boosting—eCompressor, eTurbo

OEM Transmission Alignment

Vehicle Segment Alignment Analysis—Transmission Technologies

Current and Future Preferences in Cathode Chemistries

Case Study—General Motors: Chevy Volt (Glycol Liquid cooled BTMS)

Case Study—BMW i3 Battery Design

Key Predictions for 2021

Growth Opportunity 1: OEM-Supplier Partnerships for Improving Fuel Economy and Reducing Emissions, 2021

Growth Opportunity 1: OEM-Supplier Partnerships for Improving Fuel Economy and Reducing Emissions, 2021 (continued)

Growth Opportunity 2: Electrification for Improving Fuel Economy and Reducing Emissions, 2021

Growth Opportunity 2: Electrification for Improving Fuel Economy and Reducing Emissions, 2021 (continued)

Growth Opportunity 3: Engine Boosting and Downsizing for Improving Fuel Economy and Reducing Emissions, 2021

Growth Opportunity 3: Engine Boosting and Downsizing for Improving Fuel Economy and Reducing Emissions, 2021 (continued)

Key Highlights of the Global Automotive Powertrain Industry, 2020

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

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Legal Disclaimer

Abbreviations And Acronyms Used

Learn More—Next Steps

Related Research
The global powertrain industry continues to be dominated by internal combustion engines (ICE), specifically, gasoline engines, while diesel engine’s share has been falling since the dieselgate scandal. While the share of IC engines operating on alternate fuels has remained constant, vehicle electrification is on the rise. Irrespective of the type of powertrain, the primary focus is on driving down emissions and improving fuel economy. To this effect, each region has different priorities and methods on lowering emissions, with engine downsizing, alternate fuels, mild hybrids, full hybrids, Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs), and battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), all finding suitors across the globe and a recent addition to the list being Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV). Even in powertrain electrification, the fastest growing trend in the last 5 years is that of mild hybridization, using 48V, 24V, and 12V, which plays a supporting role to conventional ICE. This will continue to be the fastest-growing trend in the short-to-medium term, ahead of electric vehicles (BEVs, FCEVs, and PHEV). Increasing electrification, however, is not limited to propulsion and is often applied to optimize powertrain subsystems. Engine downsizing, for example, is a key area that directly brings down fuel consumption and emissions, and even here, electrification is making a mark with electrified turbocharger for instant response and increased energy recovery. In a bid to reduce the dependency on fossil fuels and increase the use of renewable energy, the challenge is often the variable supply of renewable energy and its storage. While battery electric vehicles offer a solution for storing excess energy from the grid and supplying it back when required, the use of synthetic fuels offers another method of renewable-energy storage. This form of energy storage enables the use of existing production, storage, and distribution methods while ensuring carbon-neutral mobility. All the above ensure that despite the high media and public interest in powertrain electrification, ICE will continue as the leading prime mover for at least a couple of decades. Author: Bharath Kumar Srinivasan
More Information
No Index No
Podcast No
Predecessor K4BD-18
Author Bharath Srinivasan
Industries Automotive
WIP Number MG04-01-00-00-00
Is Prebook No
GPS Codes 9673-A6,9800-A6,9807-A6,9813-A6,9801-A6,9882-A6,9965-A6,9B02-A6