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Future Growth Potential of the Automotive Industry due to Sector-Focused Incentives that Cushion Economic Recovery
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In 2020, Indonesia’s automotive total industry volume (TIV) dropped by 48.4%, compared to 2019, with only 532,030 units being sold. The passenger vehicle (PV) segment remained dominant with 73.1% market share. The economic growth for 2020 was the weakest since the 1998 Asian financial crisis. Factors impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic include Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, purchasing power, and the automotive industry development.The largest contribution to passenger car sales was from segments with products priced at IDR 250 million and below, which were mainly the 4X2 and LCGC segments. The 4X2 segment’s slight growth has been supported by new model releases from top-selling brands, which appeals to the less-affected upper middle income group buyers. This is comparable to low cost green car (LCGC) segment that had no new models or variants introduced, and mainly catered to lower middle income groups with spending restrained during the pandemic. In the commercial vehicle (CV) segment, pick-up maintained sales with sustained demand in the logistics and eCommerce market. Bus demand was limited with strict inter-provincial travel restrictions during the year’s COVID-19 pandemic, and heavy-duty vehicles find staggering decrease due to decline in construction activities.In 2021, Indonesia’s TIV is projected to improve with 36.3% growth, following slow economic recovery as well as Phase 1 COVID-19 vaccination that is targeted for completion as early as March. Indonesia’s GDP is expected to rebound from (2.1%) growth in 2020 to 5.1% in 2021, contributed by recovery of major trade and manufacturing industries. Indonesian government is expected to come up with right-on-target stimulus plans for the automotive industry as regulatory aid is needed to bolster purchase in the market. Fiscal policies comprising of customs and import taxes should be considered following neighboring countries implementing protectionism measures to recover their respective domestic economies. Due to the pandemic, eHailing and rental services have witnessed a staggering decline in demand due to social distancing and work-from-home policies. This trend is expected to continue in 2021 and will gradually improve as economic activities recover from recession.On-demand delivery service is expected to continue to increase in 2021, accelerated by growth of eCommerce businesses and instant package deliveries. Operators in the shared mobility market are expected to continue to diversify their services within the same platform.
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