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Military Rifle Market Analysis, Forecast to 2028

Military Rifle Market Analysis, Forecast to 2028

A Relatively Stable Market that has the Potential to be Heavily Disrupted with the Emergence of New Rifle Calibres and the Growing Digitalisation of the Battlespace

RELEASE DATE
27-Sep-2019
REGION
North America
Research Code: MEBC-01-00-00-00
SKU: AE01361-GL-MR_23499
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Description

There are several global trends that will drive and constrain the military rifle market. These include increased modularity, digitalisation, growing presence of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) technologies, weight reduction and lethality. With the growing ability and availability of attachments, rifles are becoming increasingly modular, allowing soldiers to adopt a “plug-n-play” model with weapons. A variety of attachments can be added to weapon platforms to meet mission and environmental requirements. Modularity is being achieved through the addition of picatinny rails to a weapons body. It has become standard for rifles to be sold alongside a variety of attachments such as suppressors to reduce a rifle’s signature when firing. Rifle platforms of the future will also increasingly become modular in regards to calibre types. The ability to quickly swap a weapons barrel will grow in popularity amongst armed forces. This allows the role of a weapon to be changed to suit engagement requirements.

As the battlefield becomes increasingly digitalised within a “battlefield of things” where systems talk to one another, there will be a growing need for weapons to follow suit. There are already requirements for weapons to have fire control computers integrated within the weapon system; a case in point is the US Army’s Next Generation Squad Weapon (NGSW) programme. It is likely that this will heavily impact the sniper rifle market, allowing any soldier to become a marksman with aim assistance technologies. Furthermore, weapon systems will be required to link up and talk with other worn soldier systems as digitalisation grows. As COTS technologies from the commercial rifle market increasingly enter the defence industry and the size, weight and power (SWaP) properties of systems decrease, digital technologies will increasingly enter the market. Technological developments, especially within the areas of metamaterials, digitalisation, optics and directed energy, will become increasingly disruptive as well.

Weight reduction is still the primary issue faced by many rifles due to the growing number of equipment that soldiers are expected to carry. With lessons learnt from Afghanistan and Iraq, questions over the effectiveness and lethality of the 5.56mm North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) round at range are beginning to emerge. It is likely that the United States will adopt a 6mm intermediate round. Forces that use the 5.56mm NATO round will most likely follow suit, triggering a large number of rifle modernisation programmes and increased competition. Current market players will have to adapt in order to cater to the change in calibre. There will most likely be a growing requirement for 7.62mm calibre weapons to meet engagement requirements in the short term. Metamaterial sciences and new projectile forms will heavily affect the market, with innovation coming from commercial and non-traditional players.

This report will delve into the key issues and findings of the market identifying the current drivers and constraints on the marketplace, the competitive landscape and evolving market share in greater detail. It will also explore these issues to generate a forecast for the global market, identifying future opportunities across the assault rifle, light machine gun, general purpose machine gun, designated marksman rifle and sniper rifle markets.

RESEARCH: INFOGRAPHIC

This infographic presents a brief overview of the research, and highlights the key topics discussed in it.
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Table of Contents

Key Findings

Key Findings (continued)

Market Engineering Measurements

Market Engineering Measurements (continued)

CEO’s Perspective

Research Scope

Key Questions this Study will Answer

Scope and Definitions

Rifle Types and Definitions

Rifle Types and Definitions (continued)

Evolution of Weapon Platforms

Evolution of Weapon Platforms (continued)

How Combat Units Function—The Western Model

Percentage Revenue by Market Segment

General Trends

General Trends (continued)

General Trends (continued)

General Trends (continued)

General Trends (continued)

General Trends (continued)

General Trends (continued)

General Trends (continued)

General Trends (continued)

General Trends (continued)

Technology Impact

Technology Impact (continued)

Technology Impact (continued)

Technology Impact (continued)

Technology Impact (continued)

Military Rifle Market—Drivers and Restraints Impact Summary

Market Drivers Summary

Drivers Explained

Drivers Explained (continued)

Drivers Explained (continued)

Drivers Explained (continued)

Market Restraints Summary

Restraints Explained

Restraints Explained (continued)

Market Engineering Measurements

Market Engineering Measurements (continued)

Forecast Assumptions

Forecast Assumptions (continued)

Revenue Forecast by Programmes

Percent Revenue Forecast by Region

Revenue Forecast by Region

Revenue Forecast by Region (continued)

Revenue Forecast—Key Messages

Country Hotspots

Military Rifle Market—Competitive Environment

Competitive Landscape Overview—Leading Players

Assault Rifle Segment—Competitive Overview

LMG Segment—Competitive Overview

GPMG Segment—Competitive Overview

DMR Segment—Competitive Overview

Sniper Rifle Segment—Competitive Overview

Base Year Market Share

Existing Market Share

Market Share Forecast Evolution

Competitive Environment

Growth Opportunity 1—Increased Modularity

Growth Opportunity 2—Digitalisation of Weapons

Growth Opportunity 3—License Production

Strategic Imperatives for Growth in the Rifle Ecosystem

Segment Key Findings

Market Engineering Measurements

Assault Rifle—Conceptual Trends

Assault Rifle—Case Studies

Assault Rifle—Revenue Forecast by Region

Revenue Forecast by Region

Assault Rifle—Opportunities and Drivers

Assault Rifle—Challenges

Segment Key Findings

Market Engineering Measurements

Light Machine Gun—Conceptual Trends

Light Machine Gun—Case Studies

Light Machine Gun—Revenue Forecast by Region

Revenue Forecast by Region

Light Machine Gun—Opportunities and Drivers

Light Machine Gun—Challenges

Segment Key Findings

Market Engineering Measurements

General Purpose Machine Gun—Conceptual Trends

General Purpose Machine Gun—Case Studies

General Purpose Machine Gun—Revenue Forecast by Region

Revenue Forecast by Region

General Purpose Machine Gun—Opportunities and Drivers

General Purpose Machine Gun—Challenges

Segment Key Findings

Market Engineering Measurements

Designated Marksman Rifle—Conceptual Trends

Designated Marksman Rifle—Case Studies

Designated Marksman Rifle—Revenue Forecast by Region

Revenue Forecast by Region

Designated Marksman Rifle—Opportunities and Drivers

Sniper Rifle Challenges

Segment Key Findings

Market Engineering Measurements

Sniper Rifle—Conceptual Trends

Sniper Rifle Segment—Revenue Forecast by Region

Revenue Forecast by Region

Sniper Rifle—Opportunities and Drivers

Sniper Rifle—Challenges

Regional Influences

Regional Tensions

Trends, Growth and Challenges

Country Hotspots

Revenue Forecast by Segment

Market Share

Market Share Highlights

Competitive Environment

Regional Influences

Regional Tensions

Trends, Growth and Challenges

Country Hotspots

Country Hotspots (continued)

Revenue Forecast by Segment

Market Share

Market Share Highlights

Competitive Environment

Regional Influences

Regional Tensions

Trends, Growth and Challenges

Country Hotspots

Revenue Forecast by Segment

Market Share

Market Share Highlights

Competitive Environment

Regional Influences

Regional Tensions

Trends, Growth and Challenges

Country Hotspots

Revenue Forecast by Segment

Market Share

Market Share Highlights

Competitive Environment

Regional Influences

Regional Tensions

Trends, Growth and Challenges

Country Hotspots

Revenue Forecast by Segment

Market Share

Market Share Highlights

Competitive Environment

Regional Influences

Trends, Growth and Challenges

Country Hotspots

Revenue Forecast by Segment

Market Share

Market Share Highlights

Competitive Environment

Regional Influences

Regional Tensions

Trends, Growth and Challenges

Country Hotspots

Revenue Forecast by Segment

Market Share

Market Share Highlights

Competitive Environment

The Last Word—3 Big Predictions

Legal Disclaimer

Market Engineering Methodology

Additional Sources of Information on Study Topic

List of Companies in “Others”

List of Companies in “Others” (continued)

Annex A—Acronyms

Annex A—Acronyms (continued)

Annex A—Acronyms (continued)

Image Sources

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

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There are several global trends that will drive and constrain the military rifle market. These include increased modularity, digitalisation, growing presence of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) technologies, weight reduction and lethality. With the growing ability and availability of attachments, rifles are becoming increasingly modular, allowing soldiers to adopt a “plug-n-play” model with weapons. A variety of attachments can be added to weapon platforms to meet mission and environmental requirements. Modularity is being achieved through the addition of picatinny rails to a weapons body. It has become standard for rifles to be sold alongside a variety of attachments such as suppressors to reduce a rifle’s signature when firing. Rifle platforms of the future will also increasingly become modular in regards to calibre types. The ability to quickly swap a weapons barrel will grow in popularity amongst armed forces. This allows the role of a weapon to be changed to suit engagement requirements. As the battlefield becomes increasingly digitalised within a “battlefield of things” where systems talk to one another, there will be a growing need for weapons to follow suit. There are already requirements for weapons to have fire control computers integrated within the weapon system; a case in point is the US Army’s Next Generation Squad Weapon (NGSW) programme. It is likely that this will heavily impact the sniper rifle market, allowing any soldier to become a marksman with aim assistance technologies. Furthermore, weapon systems will be required to link up and talk with other worn soldier systems as digitalisation grows. As COTS technologies from the commercial rifle market increasingly enter the defence industry and the size, weight and power (SWaP) properties of systems decrease, digital technologies will increasingly enter the market. Technological developments, especially within the areas of metamaterials, digitalisation, optics and directed energy, will become increasingly disruptive as well. Weight reduction is still the primary issue faced by many rifles due to the growing number of equipment that soldiers are expected to carry. With lessons learnt from Afghanistan and Iraq, questions over the effectiveness and lethality of the 5.56mm North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) round at range are beginning to emerge. It is likely that the United States will adopt a 6mm intermediate round. Forces that use the 5.56mm NATO round will most likely follow suit, triggering a large number of rifle modernisation programmes and increased competition. Current market players will have to adapt in order to cater to the change in calibre. There will most likely be a growing requirement for 7.62mm calibre weapons to meet engagement requirements in the short term. Metamaterial sciences and new projectile forms will heavily affect the market, with innovation coming from commercial and non-traditional players. This report will delve into the key issues and findings of the market identifying the current drivers and constraints on the marketplace, the competitive landscape and evolving market share in greater detail. It will also explore these issues to generate a forecast for the global market, identifying future opportunities across the assault rifle, light machine gun, general purpose machine gun, designated marksman rifle and sniper rifle markets.
More Information
No Index No
Podcast No
Author Alexander Clark
Industries Aerospace, Defence and Security
WIP Number MEBC-01-00-00-00
Is Prebook No
GPS Codes 9000-A1