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Future Growth Potential Driven by Global Supply-chain Shifts, Green Strategies, and Digital Economy
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The business environment in Developed Asia (Japan, South Korea, and Singapore) continues to be uncertain despite coordinated policy efforts and government stimuli to foster economic revival. The next few months are going to crucial for the region, as countries try to overcome the pandemic. This macroeconomic outlook for Developed Asia until 2026 will enable clients to develop scenario-based macroeconomic growth projections, to gain deeper insights into the income, trade, investment, and demographic conditions in Japan, Korea, and Singapore. The research has been divided into three key sections: the overall economic outlook, demographic social outlook, and investment environment outlook.
The GDP growth analysis suggests that Japan and Singapore will register growth of 10.0% or more in 2021, primarily driven by a low 2020 base. The study also undertakes scenario-driven assumptions for the 2021–2022 GDP growth forecast, on the basis of vaccination coverage, further outbreaks of COVID-19, government support measures, and resultant recovery paths. Under an accelerated vaccine deployment scenario Asian countries will potentially reach a full GDP recovery in 2021 itself; however, under a pessimistic scenario, the recovery of these economies would stretch out to late 2022 or early 2023. The growth prospects for 2023–2025 are, however, more positive and stable for all countries.
Fiscal tightening, one of the key priorities of governments in this region may lead to restrained income in the post-pandemic period. This notwithstanding, economic recovery, gradual reduction in the unemployment rate, and easy monetary policy will strengthen the long-term per capita income outlook. Structural reforms are also a major focus area for governments, as is evident from region-wide digital transformation push. Governments in this region are also looking to ease up restrictions on foreign investment, the most recent being Japan.
Though depopulation and the high old-age dependency ratio may drag down growth of the working population, favorable government policies will counter the decline.
This research takes a look into the national vision, macroeconomic policy shift, new trade deals, and industries promoted since the onset of the pandemic. Foreign and domestic direct investors should look out for new government incentives that support economic recovery. Some of the key industries that have received a boost from the pandemic include but are not limited to high-technology industries driven by digital transformation; green industries, such as renewable energy, and electric and cleaner engine model vehicles; smart manufacturing; and healthcare.
A significant part of the research also focuses on identifying key growth opportunities despite the ongoing volatility. Shifts in global supply chains, one of the top consequences of the pandemic, is set to open up newer opportunities in developed Asia. With China’s position as a go-to manufacturing location weakening, and producers are looking to diversify, other governments in the region—primarily Japan and South Korea—are incentivizing companies that reshore or nearshore manufacturing in their countries. The emergence of newer growth hubs, away from capitals, creates a favorable business environment for companies in sectors, such as renewables, R&D, tourism, and smart city infrastructure.
Key Issues Addressed
Author: Saranya Sundaram
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