Transitory Trends in the Electric Vehicle Ecosystem in the United States, 2025

As we move into the new decade, the electric vehicle (EV) industry is likely to experience total sales of over 2.5 million units (including battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Majority of the US OEMs are likely to reduce PHEV models and introduce BEV models in their product lines. Over 450 models—300 BEVs and 150 PHEVs—will be available for sale in 2020. The xEV market in the United States is likely to reach 6.9 million units by 2025. 2019 observed a decline in year-on-year (y-o-y) growth (at -11%), for only the second time after 2014, as Tesla and Nissan exhausted their incentive quota. The US market experienced a positive growth in 2016 after declining for 3 years in a row. As OEMs launch more long-range (200 miles+) EVs, EVCS service providers look for a commercial and domestic version of CCS fast charging similar to Tesla’s charging technology. As CCS+ charging becomes more prominent, EVCS will undergo significant changes in terms of output capacity, hardware, power electronics, and temperature management. Tesla Model 3 was the highest selling vehicle globally and in the United States, with total sales of 145,515 units and accounting for over 45.7% of the market share. As an OEM, Tesla held a 55.6% share of the total EVs sold in the country. HEV market experienced a significant growth of 54% with total sales of 766,918 units in 2019. MHEVs, introduced in 2018, accounted for 48% of the total HEV sales in 2019. 48V MHEVs dominated, with a 75% share of the total MHEV sales. There are approximately 56 EV (19 BEVs, 34 PHEVs, and 3 FCEVs) and 94 HEV (69 FHEVs and 25 MHEVs) models available for sale in the United States. Over 78,500 charging stations have been installed. Of these, 64,000 are AC charging stations and 14,500 DC charging stations, with a mix of CCS, Chademo, and Tesla stations. Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) will have an adverse effect on the overall automotive industry but not on EVs as we estimate sales to increase by about 22% in 2020 as compared to 2019. California has the most densely populated charging station infrastructure, which has allowed it to be the biggest market for EVs in the country. Charging stations will be installed in strategic locations with multiple points of interest for consumers to engage with. Hotel/Lodging is currently the most favored location followed by shopping centers.

Author: Prajyot Sathe