Truck OEM Strategies for GHG/CO2 Regulation Compliance, 2020-2030

Truck OEM Strategies for GHG/CO2 Regulation Compliance, 2020-2030

Propulsion Alternatives to Diesel will Emerge in the Medium Term (2024-2027); the Outlook for Aerodynamics and Advanced Diesel Combustion Technologies is Strong

RELEASE DATE
08-Mar-2021
REGION
North America
Research Code: K3C6-01-00-00-00
SKU: AU02138-NA-MT_25286
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Description

Greenhouse gas/fuel efficiency regulations in TRIAD countries and increasingly stringent tailpipe emission standards in developing countries will shape OEM powertrain strategies over the next decade. This Frost & Sullivan research service provides an overview of key future fuel efficiency and tailpipe emission regulations across different regions for heavy-duty commercial vehicles. At present, North America is adopting GHG regulations, after which it will focus on ultra NOx regulations (medium term). Europe has developed a tool for CO2 monitoring and will soon implement GHG regulations. India planned to make the shift from BS IV to BS VI (equivalent to the Euro VI) by 2020; the country’s fuel efficiency regulations have been in place since 2018. China will shift to China VI in 2 phases—2020 and 2023; Phase 3 fuel efficiency regulations will be implemented in 2023.

These regulations will augment the penetration of advanced aerodynamics, low rolling resistance tires, auxiliary electrification, lightweighting, and advanced diesel engine technologies such as advanced turbochargers, automated manual transmission, advanced aftertreatment systems, and electrification.

Stringent emission regulations and government incentives are encouraging industry participants to explore advanced ICE engine concepts, energy recovery systems, and auxiliary electrification, including APU for operation on HVAC during vehicle standstill. The decoupling of auxiliary loads such as pumps for fuel injection and power steering, engine oil circulation, and air conditioning can reduce fuel consumption.

Energy recovery systems include waste heat recovery systems based on organic Rankine cycles and regenerative braking systems in hybrid vehicles with the potential to improve the efficiency of diesel engines. Advanced combustion strategies combined with high-efficiency transmission, advanced aerodynamics, advanced driver assistance systems, auxiliary electrification, and low rolling resistance tires will also improve fuel efficiency.

North American OEMs have commercialized most technological advancements from the SuperTruck I program, and a strong push for electrification across major OEMs and EV start-ups is being observed. Horizon 2020, the EU’s Research and Innovation program, allocates funds for green transport technologies. European OEMs are shifting to vertically integrated engines and transmission with proprietary turbochargers, and these facilitate precise control over vehicle drivetrain. As part of powertrain diversification, OEMs are focusing on proprietary natural gas engines and EV platforms. Chinese OEMs are leveraging technology partnerships with European OEMs and engine research institutes to upgrade diesel engines to meet upcoming regulations. The transition from low-cost to value and premium trucks will drive technology changes. In addition, government incentives are driving rapid progress in electrification across different Chinese OEMs. Indian OEMs are adopting a two-pronged approach by improving in-house engine platforms and sourcing advanced diesel engine technologies from Tier I engine suppliers, Japanese OEMs, and European engine research institutes.

Author: Saideep Sudhakar

RESEARCH: INFOGRAPHIC

This infographic presents a brief overview of the research, and highlights the key topics discussed in it.
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Table of Contents

Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?

The Strategic Imperative 8™

The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Commercial Trucks Industry

Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Truck OEM Strategies for GHG/CO2 Regulation Compliance—Scope of Analysis

Research Background, Commercial Trucks Industry

Research Methodology, Commercial Trucks Industry

Commercial Trucks—Market Segmentation

Definitions of Key Technologies

Definitions of Key Technologies (continued)

Technology Definitions—Tires

Technology Definitions—Transmission, Axles, Lightweighting, and Road Profile Management

Technology Definitions—Aerodynamics

Key Takeaways

Key Trends in the Diesel Powertrain Market

GHG/Fuel Economy Regulations Outlook

Global Powertrain Mix—Unit Shipment by Region and Powertrain Snapshot

Global Powertrain Mix—Unit Shipment by Powertrain Snapshot

Technology Penetration by Region—Rigid Trucks Segment

Technology Penetration by Region—Tractor Trucks Segment

Key OEM Fuel Efficiency Strategies

Regulatory Environment—North America

GHG and Fuel Economy Standards—North America

US Phase 1 and Phase 2 Standards—Combination Tractors

US Phase 1 and Phase 2 Standards—Vocational Vehicles

California Air Resources Board (CARB)’s Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) Regulation

MD and HD ZEV Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)

NA Powertrain Mix—Unit Shipment Snapshot

Unit Shipment Forecast Analysis, North American HD Trucks

Technology Penetration—Rigid Trucks: North America

Technology Penetration—Tractor Trucks: North America

OEM Powertrain Technology Adoption Drivers—North America

Regulatory Environment—Europe

Europe GHG Policy—Summary

Europe GHG Policy—Vehicle Segment Scope

European Powertrain Mix—Unit Shipment Snapshot

Unit Shipment Forecast Analysis, European HD Trucks

Technology Penetration—Rigid Trucks: Europe

Technology Penetration—Tractor Trucks: Europe

OEM Powertrain Technology Adoption Drivers—Europe

Regulatory Environment—China

China’s Fuel Efficiency Standards

Chinese Powertrain Mix—Unit Shipment Snapshot

Unit Shipment Forecast Analysis, Chinese HD Trucks

Technology Penetration—Rigid Trucks: China

Technology Penetration—Tractor Trucks: China

OEM Powertrain Technology Adoption Drivers—China

Regulatory Environment—India

Fuel Consumption Standards—India

India Powertrain Mix—Unit Shipment Snapshot

Unit Shipment Forecast Analysis, Indian HD Trucks

Technology Penetration—Rigid Trucks: India

Technology Penetration—Tractor Trucks: India

OEM Powertrain Technology Adoption Drivers—India

Technology Fuel Consumption Reduction Potential—Class 8 Long-Haul Trucks

CO2 Reduction Potential for Long-Haul Trucks—Engine Technology

CO2 Reduction Potential for Long-Haul Trucks—Transmission, Axles, and Auxiliaries

CO2 Reduction Potential for Long-Haul Trucks—Aerodynamics and Tires

Technology Fuel Consumption Reduction Potential—Class 8 Vocational Trucks

CO2 Reduction Potential for Vocational Trucks—Engine Technology

CO2 Reduction Potential for Vocational Trucks—Transmission, Tires, and Auxiliaries

Technology Fuel Consumption Reduction Potential—Urban Delivery Trucks

CO2 Reduction Potential for Urban Delivery Trucks—Engine Technology

CO2 Reduction Potential for Urban Delivery Trucks—Transmission, Tires, and Auxiliaries

Volvo Powertrain Technology Outlook

Volvo Vehicle Technology Outlook

Daimler Powertrain Technology Outlook

Daimler Vehicle Technology Outlook

PACCAR Powertrain Technology Outlook

PACCAR Vehicle Technology Outlook

Navistar Powertrain Technology Outlook

Navistar Vehicle Technology Outlook

MAN SE Powertrain Technology Outlook

MAN SE Vehicle Technology Outlook

Scania Powertrain Technology Outlook

Scania Vehicle Technology Outlook

IVECO Powertrain Technology Outlook

IVECO Vehicle Technology Outlook

ASHOK LEYLAND Powertrain Technology Outlook

ASHOK LEYLAND Vehicle Technology Outlook

Tata Motors’ Powertrain Technology Outlook

Tata Motors’ Vehicle Technology Outlook

Hino Motors’ Powertrain Technology Outlook

Hino Motors’ Vehicle Technology Outlook

ISUZU’s Powertrain Technology Outlook

ISUZU’s Vehicle Technology Outlook

Growth Opportunity 1—Advanced Aerodynamics, Auxiliary Electrification, and Improved Thermal Efficiency for Diesel Engines will be Priorities for Diesel Engine Truck Manufacturers

Growth Opportunity 1—Advanced Aerodynamics, Auxiliary Electrification, and Improved Thermal Efficiency for Diesel Engines will be Priorities for Diesel Engine Truck Manufacturers (continued)

Partial List of Acronyms Used in the Study

Partial List of Acronyms Used in the Study (continued)

Your Next Steps

Why Frost, Why Now?

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

Legal Disclaimer

Greenhouse gas/fuel efficiency regulations in TRIAD countries and increasingly stringent tailpipe emission standards in developing countries will shape OEM powertrain strategies over the next decade. This Frost & Sullivan research service provides an overview of key future fuel efficiency and tailpipe emission regulations across different regions for heavy-duty commercial vehicles. At present, North America is adopting GHG regulations, after which it will focus on ultra NOx regulations (medium term). Europe has developed a tool for CO2 monitoring and will soon implement GHG regulations. India planned to make the shift from BS IV to BS VI (equivalent to the Euro VI) by 2020; the countrys fuel efficiency regulations have been in place since 2018. China will shift to China VI in 2 phases—2020 and 2023; Phase 3 fuel efficiency regulations will be implemented in 2023. These regulations will augment the penetration of advanced aerodynamics, low rolling resistance tires, auxiliary electrification, lightweighting, and advanced diesel engine technologies such as advanced turbochargers, automated manual transmission, advanced aftertreatment systems, and electrification. Stringent emission regulations and government incentives are encouraging industry participants to explore advanced ICE engine concepts, energy recovery systems, and auxiliary electrification, including APU for operation on HVAC during vehicle standstill. The decoupling of auxiliary loads such as pumps for fuel injection and power steering, engine oil circulation, and air conditioning can reduce fuel consumption. Energy recovery systems include waste heat recovery systems based on organic Rankine cycles and regenerative braking systems in hybrid vehicles with the potential to improve the efficiency of diesel engines. Advanced combustion strategies combined with high-efficiency transmission, advanced aerodynamics, advanced driver assistance systems, auxiliary electrification, and low rolling resistance tires will also improve fuel efficiency. North American OEMs have commercialized most technological advancements from the SuperTruck I program, and a strong push for electrification across major OEMs and EV start-ups is being observed. Horizon 2020, the EUs Research and Innovation program, allocates funds for green transport technologies. European OEMs are shifting to vertically integrated engines and transmission with proprietary turbochargers, and these facilitate precise control over vehicle drivetrain. As part of powertrain diversification, OEMs are focusing on proprietary natural gas engines and EV platforms. Chinese OEMs are leveraging technology partnerships with European OEMs and engine research institutes to upgrade diesel engines to meet upcoming regulations. The transition from low-cost to value and premium trucks will drive technology changes. In addition, government incentives are driving rapid progress in electrification across different Chinese OEMs. Indian OEMs are adopting a two-pronged approach by improving in-house engine platforms and sourcing advanced diesel engine technologies from Tier I engine suppliers, Japanese OEMs, and European engine research institutes. Author: Saideep Sudhakar
More Information
No Index No
Podcast No
Author Saideep Sudhakar
Industries Automotive
WIP Number K3C6-01-00-00-00
Is Prebook No
GPS Codes 9673-A6,9800-A6,9807-A6,9813-A6,9B01-A6,9963-A6,9882-A6