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The Arms Race Intensifies as Global Powers Recalibrate Diplomacy, Embrace New Technology, and Adjust Industrial Policies
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The year 2019 presents an increasingly multi-polar world order that is adjusting to current geopolitical, economic, and industrial realities. Ramifications of the US-China-Russia power contest will be widespread as the US struggles to maintain conventional and strategic superiority despite accelerated Chinese and Russian military modernization, through a combination of new diplomatic engagements, policy adjustments, and political pressure. Foreign policy decisions, for example, the US’ withdrawal of troops from global theaters, will lead to consolidation of other regional powers to fill the vacuum left behind. Militaries will have to recalibrate their security paradigms depending on such global changes. The commercial ramifications of these actions will be manifested through revised procurement dynamics and client capability requirements that the industry must be cognizant of.At the same time, the global defense marketplace is becoming more competitive, as many nations are liberalizing exports and regional companies are working toward expanding their customer base with support from their respective local governments. With China and Russia aggressively pursuing defense exports, Western OEMs need to prepare value propositions in solutions, in terms of added benefits, such as extended maintenance support and extended financing support to compete. Traditional Commercial off the Shelf (COTS) equipment procuring markets have started to dictate a strategic partnership model in defense procurement in which foreign Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) have to engage local industry and be more invested in local defense programs. Economic constraints have led many operators to procure stored or second-hand platforms and invest in modernization or look at non-traditional defense suppliers. New business models, such as leasing of platforms, outsourcing of non-core functions, and other innovative service-based models are being sought after. The global defense industry must be prepared to meet such expectations in 2019 to seize growth opportunities.From a technology perspective, major powers are set to increase investments in Command, Control, Communications, Computer, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (C4ISR), advanced missile defense systems, and network-centric warfare models among others. Research Development Testing and Evaluation (RDTE) in emerging military technology, such as hypersonic missiles, energy-based weapons, and integrated cybersecurity solutions, will go up as industry and governments compete with each other for technological prowess.Frost & Sullivan, through its Global Defense Outlook, 2019, aims to present a macro view of the global military realpolitik, regional customer requirements in terms of platforms and subsystems, emerging technology, and industry dynamics which will help clients formulate new strategies or tweak existing go-to-market strategies.Author: Arjun Sreekumar
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