Global Light Commercial Vehicle Market Outlook, 2020

Global Light Commercial Vehicle Market Outlook, 2020

LCV Sales to Decline by 19.0% in 2020 Impacted by Global Recession Caused by the COVID-19 Outbreak at the Start of the Year

RELEASE DATE
12-Jun-2020
REGION
Global
Research Code: K4C5-01-00-00-00
SKU: AU02003-GL-MO_24442

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Description

Global sales of light commercial vehicle (LCV) are expected to reach 9.49 million units in 2020, with pickups contributing to 4.62 million units. The share of North America (NA) in the overall LCV market stood at 35%, while China held a 25% share, in 2019. Impending disruptions due to Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) are expected to impact sales across all regions, with Europe taking the biggest hit due to the severity of the virus. The Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (RNM) group retained its global leadership in the light-duty (LD) trucks and vans segment, while Ford continued to lead the pickups segment globally in 2019. Electric LCVs (eLCVs) will continue to gain importance going forward with a slew of launches expected until 2023, with quite a few of them, especially in medium-sized vans, expected in 2020. Renault-Nissan, Volkswagen, Daimler, Ford, and Fiat have plans to come out with new eLCV models this year.

COVID-19 has brought the global economy to its knees with business activities severely impacted everywhere. This has only exacerbated an already weak outlook for LCV sales in 2020, which is now expected to decline by 19% across major regions combined. Governments of all major economies have come up with a rescue plan in form of providing substantial fiscal stimulus, to the tune of 5%-10% of GDP on average, to their respective countries. However, most regions are expected to make any decent recovery only by late Q3/Q4 2020, with emerging nations on average recovering quicker than their counterparts in NA and Europe. With the lockdown in force in most regions and people staying indoors and maintaining social distancing, last-mile delivery of essentials is expected to rise. This will result in greater utilization and reallocation of LCVs in the last-mile application to deliver essentials. The current situation could open up the potential for a range of innovations and disruptions leading to increasing adoption of autonomous features on vehicles, such as the use of drones for deliveries in the medium to long terms.

With the increase in supply chain complexity and service requirements, last-mile delivery is evolving dynamically to meet customer demands. Electric and autonomous LCVs will play a crucial role in this regard. A large portion of the dynamic shuttles which are a part of on-demand passenger transportation will be based on LCV platforms. Apart from the impact of eCommerce and last-mile applications, connectivity is expected to slowly grow in significance. Greater integration of various telematics features in the developed markets such as NA and Europe as well as increasing penetration in China, India and Latin America (LATAM) can potentially bring connected features in LCVs to the forefront in 2020.

LCV OEMs will leverage their technological knowhow in the passenger vehicle segment in terms of powertrain, and also their lightweighting strategies. Most of them such as Renault-Nissan, Volkswagen, and Daimler are working on building common platforms for some LCVs and passenger vehicles to reduce lead times and save on development costs. The slowdown due to the pandemic should also expedite some of the M&A activity in the automotive industry as companies look for collaboration to cut costs and mitigate risks. More joint work from OEMs and suppliers in the areas of electrification, connectivity, and developing autonomous capabilities should make these features affordable and increase their adoption going forward.

Author: Marshall Martin

RESEARCH: INFOGRAPHIC

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Table of Contents

2019—Key Highlights

Global LCV Market Forecast—Overview

Snapshot of the Global LCV Market—2019

Top Trends in the LCV Market—2020

Top 5 Predictions of 2020

Research Scope

Research Aims and Objectives

Key Questions this Study will Answer

Research Background

Research Methodology

Key OEMs Compared in this Study

Covid-19 Global Economic Impact—Visioning Scenarios

Global Economic Outlook 2020—Top 5 Predictions

Global Economic Outlook 2020—Top 5 Predictions (continued)

2020 World GDP Growth Snapshot

Major Economies—Key Predictions for 2020

Global LCV Market Forecast—Overview

Global LCV Market Forecast—By Weight Segment

Global Pickup Market Forecast—By Weight Segment

Global LCV Sales of Top 20 OEM Groups

Global Pickup Sales of Top 10 OEM Groups

Key Regional Markets—NA and Europe

Key Regional Markets—China and India

Key Regional Markets—LATAM and Russia + CIS

Key Regional Markets—APAC and GCC

COVID-19 Impact on LCV Sales in United States, China, India and Brazil

COVID-19 Impact on LCV Sales in EU Countries

COVID-19 Impact—Germany, Italy, and Spain Perspective

COVID-19 Impact—US, China, and UK Perspective

COVID-19 Impact—India and Brazil Perspective

Case Study—COVID-19 Impact on US LCV Utilization

Regional Strategy for Testing Procedures

Executive Summary—Key Technologies to Watch in 2020

Overriding Challenge—Legislation

Emission and Fuel Efficiency Targets in Key Regions

China Stage VI Emission Standard for LCV

China LDV Fuel Efficiency Standards

LCV Market Powertrain Split Forecast

Vehicle Segment Alignment Analysis—Engine Technologies

Vehicle Segment Alignment Analysis—Transmission Technologies

Powertrain Technologies—Transmission Trend

LCV Market Electrification Split Forecast

Use Case Analysis for Electrification

Key eLCV Models Positioning

Anticipated eLCV Launches by Key OEMs in 2020 and Beyond

Overview of Incentives—Global

Overview of Incentives—Global (continued)

Overview of Incentives—Global (continued)

Overview of Incentives—Global (continued)

Charging Station Installations—Europe

Charging Station Installations—Americas

Top 6 Battery Manufacturers—Global

Sourcing Strategy—Supplier Relationships

Global Li-ion Battery Production Scenario—2027

OEM Telematics

Top Trends Driving the Global Connected Truck Telematics Market

Trends Across Regions

FMS Packaging—Outlook of Individual Services’ Integration

Regional LCV Telematics Penetration

Key Trends by Level of Autonomy

Market and Technology Trends for 2020

OEM Business Strategies—Comparative Analysis

OEM Business Strategies—Case Study: Volkswagen and Ford

Demand-Responsive Transit—Key 2019 Highlights

Demand-Responsive Transit—How the Market will Shape Up in 2020?

Autonomous Shuttle—Key 2019 Highlights

Autonomous Shuttle—How will the Market Shape Up in 2020?

Last-mile Delivery Innovations

Growth Opportunity

Strategic Imperatives

Key Conclusions and 2020 Outlook

Legal Disclaimer

Market Engineering Methodology

Partial List of Abbreviations/Expansions Used

Partial List of Abbreviations/Expansions Used (continued)

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

Related Research
Global sales of light commercial vehicle (LCV) are expected to reach 9.49 million units in 2020, with pickups contributing to 4.62 million units. The share of North America (NA) in the overall LCV market stood at 35%, while China held a 25% share, in 2019. Impending disruptions due to Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) are expected to impact sales across all regions, with Europe taking the biggest hit due to the severity of the virus. The Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (RNM) group retained its global leadership in the light-duty (LD) trucks and vans segment, while Ford continued to lead the pickups segment globally in 2019. Electric LCVs (eLCVs) will continue to gain importance going forward with a slew of launches expected until 2023, with quite a few of them, especially in medium-sized vans, expected in 2020. Renault-Nissan, Volkswagen, Daimler, Ford, and Fiat have plans to come out with new eLCV models this year. COVID-19 has brought the global economy to its knees with business activities severely impacted everywhere. This has only exacerbated an already weak outlook for LCV sales in 2020, which is now expected to decline by 19% across major regions combined. Governments of all major economies have come up with a rescue plan in form of providing substantial fiscal stimulus, to the tune of 5%-10% of GDP on average, to their respective countries. However, most regions are expected to make any decent recovery only by late Q3/Q4 2020, with emerging nations on average recovering quicker than their counterparts in NA and Europe. With the lockdown in force in most regions and people staying indoors and maintaining social distancing, last-mile delivery of essentials is expected to rise. This will result in greater utilization and reallocation of LCVs in the last-mile application to deliver essentials. The current situation could open up the potential for a range of innovations and disruptions leading to increasing adoption of autonomous features on vehicles, such as the use of drones for deliveries in the medium to long terms. With the increase in supply chain complexity and service requirements, last-mile delivery is evolving dynamically to meet customer demands. Electric and autonomous LCVs will play a crucial role in this regard. A large portion of the dynamic shuttles which are a part of on-demand passenger transportation will be based on LCV platforms. Apart from the impact of eCommerce and last-mile applications, connectivity is expected to slowly grow in significance. Greater integration of various telematics features in the developed markets such as NA and Europe as well as increasing penetration in China, India and Latin America (LATAM) can potentially bring connected features in LCVs to the forefront in 2020. LCV OEMs will leverage their technological knowhow in the passenger vehicle segment in terms of powertrain, and also their lightweighting strategies. Most of them such as Renault-Nissan, Volkswagen, and Daimler are working on building common platforms for some LCVs and passenger vehicles to reduce lead times and save on development costs. The slowdown due to the pandemic should also expedite some of the M&A activity in the automotive industry as companies look for collaboration to cut costs and mitigate risks. More joint work from OEMs and suppliers in the areas of electrification, connectivity, and developing autonomous capabilities should make these features affordable and increase their adoption going forward. Author: Marshall Martin
More Information
No Index No
Podcast No
Author Marshall Martin
Industries Automotive
WIP Number K4C5-01-00-00-00
Is Prebook No
GPS Codes 9800-A6,9B01-A6,9963-A6,9AF6-A6