Global Light Commercial Vehicle Market Outlook, 2020
Global Light Commercial Vehicle Market Outlook, 2020
LCV Sales to Decline by 19.0% in 2020 Impacted by Global Recession Caused by the COVID-19 Outbreak at the Start of the Year
12-Jun-2020
Global
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Description
Global sales of light commercial vehicle (LCV) are expected to reach 9.49 million units in 2020, with pickups contributing to 4.62 million units. The share of North America (NA) in the overall LCV market stood at 35%, while China held a 25% share, in 2019. Impending disruptions due to Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) are expected to impact sales across all regions, with Europe taking the biggest hit due to the severity of the virus. The Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (RNM) group retained its global leadership in the light-duty (LD) trucks and vans segment, while Ford continued to lead the pickups segment globally in 2019. Electric LCVs (eLCVs) will continue to gain importance going forward with a slew of launches expected until 2023, with quite a few of them, especially in medium-sized vans, expected in 2020. Renault-Nissan, Volkswagen, Daimler, Ford, and Fiat have plans to come out with new eLCV models this year.
COVID-19 has brought the global economy to its knees with business activities severely impacted everywhere. This has only exacerbated an already weak outlook for LCV sales in 2020, which is now expected to decline by 19% across major regions combined. Governments of all major economies have come up with a rescue plan in form of providing substantial fiscal stimulus, to the tune of 5%-10% of GDP on average, to their respective countries. However, most regions are expected to make any decent recovery only by late Q3/Q4 2020, with emerging nations on average recovering quicker than their counterparts in NA and Europe. With the lockdown in force in most regions and people staying indoors and maintaining social distancing, last-mile delivery of essentials is expected to rise. This will result in greater utilization and reallocation of LCVs in the last-mile application to deliver essentials. The current situation could open up the potential for a range of innovations and disruptions leading to increasing adoption of autonomous features on vehicles, such as the use of drones for deliveries in the medium to long terms.
With the increase in supply chain complexity and service requirements, last-mile delivery is evolving dynamically to meet customer demands. Electric and autonomous LCVs will play a crucial role in this regard. A large portion of the dynamic shuttles which are a part of on-demand passenger transportation will be based on LCV platforms. Apart from the impact of eCommerce and last-mile applications, connectivity is expected to slowly grow in significance. Greater integration of various telematics features in the developed markets such as NA and Europe as well as increasing penetration in China, India and Latin America (LATAM) can potentially bring connected features in LCVs to the forefront in 2020.
LCV OEMs will leverage their technological knowhow in the passenger vehicle segment in terms of powertrain, and also their lightweighting strategies. Most of them such as Renault-Nissan, Volkswagen, and Daimler are working on building common platforms for some LCVs and passenger vehicles to reduce lead times and save on development costs. The slowdown due to the pandemic should also expedite some of the M&A activity in the automotive industry as companies look for collaboration to cut costs and mitigate risks. More joint work from OEMs and suppliers in the areas of electrification, connectivity, and developing autonomous capabilities should make these features affordable and increase their adoption going forward.
Author: Marshall Martin
RESEARCH: INFOGRAPHIC
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Table of Contents
2019—Key Highlights
Global LCV Market Forecast—Overview
Snapshot of the Global LCV Market—2019
Top Trends in the LCV Market—2020
Top 5 Predictions of 2020
Research Scope
Research Aims and Objectives
Key Questions this Study will Answer
Research Background
Research Methodology
Key OEMs Compared in this Study
Covid-19 Global Economic Impact—Visioning Scenarios
Global Economic Outlook 2020—Top 5 Predictions
Global Economic Outlook 2020—Top 5 Predictions (continued)
2020 World GDP Growth Snapshot
Major Economies—Key Predictions for 2020
Global LCV Market Forecast—Overview
Global LCV Market Forecast—By Weight Segment
Global Pickup Market Forecast—By Weight Segment
Global LCV Sales of Top 20 OEM Groups
Global Pickup Sales of Top 10 OEM Groups
Key Regional Markets—NA and Europe
Key Regional Markets—China and India
Key Regional Markets—LATAM and Russia + CIS
Key Regional Markets—APAC and GCC
COVID-19 Impact on LCV Sales in United States, China, India and Brazil
COVID-19 Impact on LCV Sales in EU Countries
COVID-19 Impact—Germany, Italy, and Spain Perspective
COVID-19 Impact—US, China, and UK Perspective
COVID-19 Impact—India and Brazil Perspective
Case Study—COVID-19 Impact on US LCV Utilization
Regional Strategy for Testing Procedures
Executive Summary—Key Technologies to Watch in 2020
Overriding Challenge—Legislation
Emission and Fuel Efficiency Targets in Key Regions
China Stage VI Emission Standard for LCV
China LDV Fuel Efficiency Standards
LCV Market Powertrain Split Forecast
Vehicle Segment Alignment Analysis—Engine Technologies
Vehicle Segment Alignment Analysis—Transmission Technologies
Powertrain Technologies—Transmission Trend
LCV Market Electrification Split Forecast
Use Case Analysis for Electrification
Key eLCV Models Positioning
Anticipated eLCV Launches by Key OEMs in 2020 and Beyond
Overview of Incentives—Global
Overview of Incentives—Global (continued)
Overview of Incentives—Global (continued)
Overview of Incentives—Global (continued)
Charging Station Installations—Europe
Charging Station Installations—Americas
Top 6 Battery Manufacturers—Global
Sourcing Strategy—Supplier Relationships
Global Li-ion Battery Production Scenario—2027
OEM Telematics
Top Trends Driving the Global Connected Truck Telematics Market
Trends Across Regions
FMS Packaging—Outlook of Individual Services’ Integration
Regional LCV Telematics Penetration
Key Trends by Level of Autonomy
Market and Technology Trends for 2020
OEM Business Strategies—Comparative Analysis
OEM Business Strategies—Case Study: Volkswagen and Ford
Demand-Responsive Transit—Key 2019 Highlights
Demand-Responsive Transit—How the Market will Shape Up in 2020?
Autonomous Shuttle—Key 2019 Highlights
Autonomous Shuttle—How will the Market Shape Up in 2020?
Last-mile Delivery Innovations
Growth Opportunity
Strategic Imperatives
Key Conclusions and 2020 Outlook
Legal Disclaimer
Market Engineering Methodology
Partial List of Abbreviations/Expansions Used
Partial List of Abbreviations/Expansions Used (continued)
List of Exhibits
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
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Author | Marshall Martin |
Industries | Automotive |
WIP Number | K4C5-01-00-00-00 |
Is Prebook | No |
GPS Codes | 9800-A6,9B01-A6,9963-A6,9AF6-A6 |