Global Rail Market Outlook, 2016

Fueled by Consolidation and Competition for High-value Greenfield Infrastructure Projects, Locomotives, Passenger Coaches and Multiple Units to Experience Strong Orders

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This deliverable provides an outlook of growth opportunities in the global rail market. The study discusses key trends, market drivers, opportunities, regional influences, and market dynamics and provides market sizes for infrastructure and rolling stock on a global scale. Market forecasts by region (Africa, Asia-Pacific, Eastern Europe, Western Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and North America) are provided for ridership, freight traffic, network length, rail electrification, and installed bases for locomotives, passenger coaches, multiple units, and wagons. The study period is from 2015 to 2022, and strategic conclusions have been provided.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary2015 Key Highlights2015–2016 Rail Industry Senior Management Top-of-mind IssuesTop 5 Predictions—2016Global Rail Market OverviewOverview of ForecastsOverview of Global Rail TrafficRail Traffic Growth Tied Strongly to UrbanizationOverview of Global Rail ElectrificationGlobal Rolling Stock Supplier Market OverviewMerger of CSR and CNR to CRCC Dwarfs the Entire MarketCRRC and Freight Rail Rolling Stock Suppliers to See Highest GrowthRail OEMs Trying to Operate across the Entire Rail Value ChainConsolidation among Rolling Stock Manufacturers in 2015Emission Standards for Rail Applications in Europe and North AmericaPassenger Vehicles and Heavy Trucks as Largest Sources of EmissionsEPA Emission Standards for Locomotives in the United StatesPM and NOx ReductionTier 4 Engine Trends in NAMarket Positioning of Low Emission LocomotivesRail Contribution to Emissions—EuropeImpact of Stage IIIA Rail Norms Clearly Visible in 2011 FiguresProposed Stage V Targets Particulate Emissions for Diesel EnginesPM versus NOx Level Analysis for Railcars and Locomotives—Stage VRegional Focus—North AmericaPassenger Operators Take Increasing Technology PresenceNew Generation of Locomotives from Several OEMsRail Passenger Traffic ProjectionsInvestments in US Rail—Federal and Class 1Freight Railroad in the United StatesCoal—Most Carried Freight in Class I RailroadsIncreasingly Diverse Commodities Transported by Rail FreightIntermodal—Largest Growth in Demand in 2014Intermodal Rail Freight Traffic Flow—United StatesIntermodal Rail Freight Traffic ForecastAbout 60% of all Intermodal Rail Traffic Converges at ChicagoPoor Service Levels—Congestion Pricing and ContractsWagon Leasing Agencies to Continue Expanding Fleet in 2016GE Dominates Locomotive Market in the United StatesUS Locomotive MarketShale Gas and Future ImplicationsLNG Engine R&D in NARegional Focus—EuropeMajor Enhancement of Rail Infrastructure Key Focus till 2020HSR Expected to be Major Area of Spending by 2020Freight Rail Traffic in EuropeRussia and Germany—Highest Rail Freight Traffic in EuropeEuropean Rail Freight Caters to Extremely Diverse IndustriesNumber of Wagons Estimated to Operate in Europe—565,390EMU Preferred for Passenger ServiceTotal of 2,763 Locomotives and 9,082 MUs to be Delivered by 2022GE Might Further Expand European Presence through VosslohAlstom, Bombardier, and Stadler Dominate the MU MarketRegional Focus—IndiaNetwork Capacity Expansion the Primary Target of Indian RailIndian Railways Proposed Investment Plan (2015 to 2019)Over 39 Cities in India Looking at Urban Rail SystemsIndia Looking at Connecting Key Regional Cities with HSRInvestments Planned to Separate Rail Freight TrafficRegional Focus—South AfricaOverview of the Rail Industry in South AfricaOverview of the Rail Freight Market in South AfricaInvestment in the South African Freight Rail IndustryNew Generation of Locomotives from Several OEMsTransnet—Strategy to Position Itself as a Leading Manufacturer in AfricaInformation Technology in the Global Rail IndustryFleet Telematics Expected to See Sharp Increase in Adoption in 2016Scale of Big Data in PetabytesAdvanced Lead Ranking and Conversion for Rail EnvironmentPerformance Improvement Possibilities with Predictive AnalyticsConclusionsKey Conclusions and 2016 OutlookRail Research Titles—2012 to 2025Legal DisclaimerAppendixTable of Acronyms UsedTable of Acronyms Used (continued)Market Engineering MethodologyMega Trends and Smart CitiesMega Trends Shaping Future of LogisticsMega Trend—Urbanization and Smart CitiesMega Trend—Urbanization and Smart Cities (continued)Mega Trends Driving Logistics IndustryMega Trend—UrbanizationSmart Cities Creating a Smart WorldMobility Landscape—Many Participants, New Partnerships, New ModelsSix Key Pillars to the Smart Train Definition of Every OEMForecast Tables—Global Mainline Passenger Rail VolumesPassenger Ridership Forecasts—AfricaPassenger Ridership Forecasts—APACPassenger Ridership Forecasts—Eastern EuropePassenger Ridership Forecasts—Western EuropePassenger Ridership Forecasts—LATAM, Middle East, and NAForecast Tables—Global Mainline Freight TrafficFreight Traffic Forecasts—AfricaFreight Traffic Forecasts—APACFreight Traffic Forecasts—Eastern EuropeFreight Traffic Forecasts—Western EuropeFreight Traffic Forecasts—LATAM, Middle East, and NAForecast Tables—Global Mainline Rail Track LengthLength of Rail Network Forecasts—AfricaLength of Rail Network Forecasts—APACLength of Rail Network Forecasts—Eastern EuropeLength of Rail Network Forecasts—Western EuropeLength of Rail Network Forecasts—LATAM, Middle East, and NAForecast Tables—Global Electrified Mainline Rail Track LengthLength of Electrification Forecasts—Africa and APACLength of Electrification Forecasts—Eastern EuropeLength of Electrification Forecasts—Western EuropeLength of Electrification Forecasts—LATAM, Middle East, and NAForecast Tables—Locomotives in Mainline ServiceLocomotives in Installed Base Forecasts—AfricaLocomotives in Installed Base Forecasts—APACLocomotives in Installed Base Forecasts—Eastern EuropeLocomotives in Installed Base Forecasts—Western EuropeLocomotives in Installed Base Forecasts—LATAM, Middle East, and NAForecast Tables—Passenger Coaches in Mainline ServicePassenger Coaches in Installed Base Forecasts—AfricaPassenger Coaches in Installed Base Forecasts—APACPassenger Coaches in Installed Base Forecasts—Eastern EuropePassenger Coaches in Installed Base Forecasts—Western EuropePassenger Coaches in Installed Base Forecasts—LATAM, Middle East, and NAForecast Tables—Multiple Units in Mainline ServiceMUs in Installed Base Forecasts—Africa and APACMUs in Installed Base Forecasts—Eastern EuropeMUs in Installed Base Forecasts—Western EuropeMUs in Installed Base Forecasts—LATAM, Middle East, and NAForecast Tables—Freight Wagons in Mainline ServiceWagons in Installed Base Forecasts—AfricaWagons in Installed Base Forecasts—APACWagons in Installed Base Forecasts—Eastern EuropeWagons in Installed Base Forecasts—Western EuropeWagons in Installed Base Forecasts—LATAM, Middle East, and NA

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