Global Rail Market Outlook, 2016

Fueled by Consolidation and Competition for High-value Greenfield Infrastructure Projects, Locomotives, Passenger Coaches and Multiple Units to Experience Strong Orders

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This deliverable provides an outlook of growth opportunities in the global rail market. The study discusses key trends, market drivers, opportunities, regional influences, and market dynamics and provides market sizes for infrastructure and rolling stock on a global scale. Market forecasts by region (Africa, Asia-Pacific, Eastern Europe, Western Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and North America) are provided for ridership, freight traffic, network length, rail electrification, and installed bases for locomotives, passenger coaches, multiple units, and wagons. The study period is from 2015 to 2022, and strategic conclusions have been provided.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
2015 Key Highlights
2015–2016 Rail Industry Senior Management Top-of-mind Issues
Top 5 Predictions—2016
2. Global Rail Market Overview
Overview of Forecasts
Overview of Global Rail Traffic
Rail Traffic Growth Tied Strongly to Urbanization
Overview of Global Rail Electrification
3. Global Rolling Stock Supplier Market Overview
Merger of CSR and CNR to CRCC Dwarfs the Entire Market
CRRC and Freight Rail Rolling Stock Suppliers to See Highest Growth
Rail OEMs Trying to Operate across the Entire Rail Value Chain
Consolidation among Rolling Stock Manufacturers in 2015
4. Emission Standards for Rail Applications in Europe and North America
Passenger Vehicles and Heavy Trucks as Largest Sources of Emissions
EPA Emission Standards for Locomotives in the United States
PM and NOx Reduction
Tier 4 Engine Trends in NA
Market Positioning of Low Emission Locomotives
Impact of Stage IIIA Rail Norms Clearly Visible in 2011 Figures
Proposed Stage V Targets Particulate Emissions for Diesel Engines
PM versus NOx Level Analysis for Railcars and Locomotives—Stage V
5. Regional Focus—North America
Passenger Operators Take Increasing Technology Presence
New Generation of Locomotives from Several OEMs
Rail Passenger Traffic Projections
Investments in US Rail—Federal and Class 1
Freight Railroad in the United States
Coal—Most Carried Freight in Class I Railroads
Increasingly Diverse Commodities Transported by Rail Freight
Intermodal—Largest Growth in Demand in 2014
Intermodal Rail Freight Traffic Flow—United States
Intermodal Rail Freight Traffic Forecast
About 60% of all Intermodal Rail Traffic Converges at Chicago
Poor Service Levels—Congestion Pricing and Contracts
Wagon Leasing Agencies to Continue Expanding Fleet in 2016
GE Dominates Locomotive Market in the United States
US Locomotive Market
Shale Gas and Future Implications
LNG Engine R&D in NA
6. Regional Focus—Europe
Major Enhancement of Rail Infrastructure Key Focus till 2020
HSR Expected to be Major Area of Spending by 2020
Freight Rail Traffic in Europe
Russia and Germany—Highest Rail Freight Traffic in Europe
European Rail Freight Caters to Extremely Diverse Industries
Number of Wagons Estimated to Operate in Europe—565,390
EMU Preferred for Passenger Service
Total of 2,763 Locomotives and 9,082 MUs to be Delivered by 2022
GE Might Further Expand European Presence through Vossloh
Alstom, Bombardier, and Stadler Dominate the MU Market
7. Regional Focus—India
Network Capacity Expansion the Primary Target of Indian Rail
Indian Railways Proposed Investment Plan (2015 to 2019)
Over 39 Cities in India Looking at Urban Rail Systems
India Looking at Connecting Key Regional Cities with HSR
Investments Planned to Separate Rail Freight Traffic
8. Regional Focus—South Africa
Overview of the Rail Industry in South Africa
Overview of the Rail Freight Market in South Africa
Investment in the South African Freight Rail Industry
New Generation of Locomotives from Several OEMs
Transnet—Strategy to Position Itself as a Leading Manufacturer in Africa
9. Information Technology in the Global Rail Industry
Fleet Telematics Expected to See Sharp Increase in Adoption in 2016
Scale of Big Data in Petabytes
Advanced Lead Ranking and Conversion for Rail Environment
Performance Improvement Possibilities with Predictive Analytics
10. Conclusions
Key Conclusions and 2016 Outlook
Rail Research Titles—2012 to 2025
Legal Disclaimer
11. Appendix
Table of Acronyms Used
Market Engineering Methodology
12. Mega Trends and Smart Cities
Mega Trends Shaping Future of Logistics
Urbanization and Smart Cities
Mega Trends Driving Logistics Industry
Urbanization
Smart Cities Creating a Smart World
Mobility Landscape—Many Participants, New Partnerships, New Models
Six Key Pillars to the Smart Train Definition of Every OEM
13. Forecast Tables—Global Mainline Passenger Rail Volumes
Passenger Ridership Forecasts
Africa
APAC
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
LATAM, Middle East, and NA
14. Forecast Tables—Global Mainline Freight Traffic
Freight Traffic Forecasts
Africa
APAC
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
LATAM, Middle East, and NA
15. Forecast Tables—Global Mainline Rail Track Length
Length of Rail Network Forecasts
Africa
APAC
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
LATAM, Middle East, and NA
16. Forecast Tables—Global Electrified Mainline Rail Track Length
Length of Electrification Forecasts
17. Forecast Tables—Locomotives in Mainline Service
Locomotives in Installed Base Forecasts
18. Forecast Tables—Passenger Coaches in Mainline Service
Passenger Coaches in Installed Base Forecasts
19. Forecast Tables—Multiple Units in Mainline Service
MUs in Installed Base Forecasts
20. Forecast Tables—Freight Wagons in Mainline Service
Wagons in Installed Base Forecasts


List of Figures & Charts

1. Rail Market: Positioning of Top Rolling Stock Manufacturers, Global, 2015
2. Rail Market: Line Haul and Switcher Locomotive Emission Standards, US , 1973–2015
3. Rail Market: Emission Standards for Engines of Locomotives and Railcars, Europe, 2006–2021
4. Rail Market: Freight Modal Share, South Africa, 2013
5. Rail Market: Total Expected Passenger Ridership, Africa, 2015–2022
6. Rail Market: Total Expected Passenger Ridership, APAC, 2015–2022
7. Rail Market: Total Expected Passenger Ridership, Eastern Europe, 2015–2022
8. Rail Market: Total Expected Passenger Ridership, Western Europe, 2015–2022
9. Rail Market: Total Expected Passenger Ridership, LATAM, 2015–2022
10. Rail Market: Total Expected Passenger Ridership, Middle East, 2015–2022
11. Rail Market: Total Expected Passenger Ridership, NA, 2015–2022
12. Rail Market: Total Expected Freight Traffic, Africa, 2015–2022
13. Rail Market: Total Expected Freight Traffic, APAC, 2015–2022
14. Rail Market: Total Expected Freight Traffic, Eastern Europe, 2015–2022
15. Rail Market: Total Expected Freight Traffic, Western Europe, 2015–2022
16. Rail Market: Total Expected Freight Traffic, LATAM, 2015–2022
17. Rail Market: Total Expected Freight Traffic, Middle East, 2015–2022
18. Rail Market: Total Expected Freight Traffic, NA, 2015–2022
19. Rail Market: Total Expected Length of Rail Network, Africa, 2015–2022
20. Rail Market: Total Expected Length of Rail Network, APAC, 2015–2022
21. Rail Market: Total Expected Length of Rail Network, Eastern Europe, 2015–2022
22. Rail Market: Total Expected Length of Rail Network, Western Europe, 2015–2022
23. Rail Market: Total Expected Length of Rail Network, LATAM, 2015–2022
24. Rail Market: Total Expected Length of Rail Network, Middle East, 2015–2022
25. Rail Market: Total Expected Length of Rail Network, NA, 2015–2022
26. Rail Market: Total Expected Length of Electrified Rail Network, Africa, 2015–2022
27. Rail Market: Total Expected Length of Electrified Rail Network, APAC, 2015–2022
28. Rail Market: Total Expected Length of Rail Network, Eastern Europe, 2015–2022
29. Rail Market: Total Expected Length of Rail Network, Western Europe, 2015–2022
30. Rail Market: Total Expected Length of Rail Network, LATAM, 2015–2022
31. Rail Market: Total Expected Length of Rail Network, Middle East, 2015–2022
32. Rail Market: Total Expected Length of Rail Network, NA, 2015–2022
33. Rail Market: Total Locomotives in Installed Base, Africa, 2015–2022
34. Rail Market: Total Locomotives in Installed Base, APAC, 2015–2022
35. Rail Market: Total Locomotives in Installed Base, Eastern Europe, 2015–2022
36. Rail Market: Total Locomotives in Installed Base, Western Europe, 2015–2022
37. Rail Market: Total Locomotives in Installed Base, LATAM, 2015–2022
38. Rail Market: Total Locomotives in Installed Base, Middle East, 2015–2022
39. Rail Market: Total Locomotives in Installed Base, NA, 2015–2022
40. Rail Market: Total Passenger Coaches in Installed Base, Africa, 2015–2022
41. Rail Market: Total Passenger Coaches in Installed Base, APAC, 2015–2022
42. Rail Market: Total Passenger Coaches in Installed Base, Eastern Europe, 2015–2022
43. Rail Market: Total Passenger Coaches in Installed Base, Western Europe, 2015–2022
44. Rail Market: Total Passenger Coaches in Installed Base, LATAM, 2015–2022
45. Rail Market: Total Passenger Coaches in Installed Base, Middle East, 2015–2022
46. Rail Market: Total Passenger Coaches in Installed Base, NA, 2015–2022
47. Rail Market: Total MUs in Installed Base, Africa, 2015–2022
48. Rail Market: Total MUs in Installed Base, APAC, 2015–2022
49. Rail Market: Total MUs in Installed Base, Eastern Europe, 2015–2022
50. Rail Market: Total MUs in Installed Base, Western Europe, 2015–2022
51. Rail Market: Total MUs in Installed Base, LATAM, 2015–2022
52. Rail Market: Total MUs in Installed Base, Middle East, 2015–2022
53. Rail Market: Total MUs in Installed Base, NA, 2015–2022
54. Rail Market: Total Wagons in Installed Base, Africa, 2015–2022
55. Rail Market: Total Wagons in Installed Base, APAC, 2015–2022
56. Rail Market: Total Wagons in Installed Base, Eastern Europe, 2015–2022
57. Rail Market: Total Wagons in Installed Base, Western Europe, 2015–2022
58. Rail Market: Total Wagons in Installed Base, LATAM, 2015–2022
59. Rail Market: Total Wagons in Installed Base, Middle East, 2015–2022
60. Rail Market: Total Wagons in Installed Base, NA, 2015–2022


1. Rail Market: Senior Management Top-of-mind Issues, Global, 2014–2015
2. Rail Market: Overview of Forecasts of Key Rail Parameters, Global, 2015 and 2022
3. Rail Market: Total Expected Rail Traffic, Global, 2015–2022
4. Rail Market: Market Share of Mainline Passenger Volumes, Global, 2015–2050
5. Rail Market: Market Share of Urban Traffic Volumes, Global, 2015–2050
6. Rail Market: Track Electrification, Global, 2015–2016
7. Rail Market: Top Rolling Stock Manufacturers by Annual Revenue, Global, 2015
8. Rail Market: Positioning of Top Rolling Stock Manufacturers, Global, 2014–2022
9. Rail Market: Rolling Stock OEM Acquisitions, Global, 2015
10. Rail Market: Transportation CO2 Emissions by Mode, US, 2004–2013
11. Rail Market: PM versus NOx Emission Reduction Plan, US, 2015
12. Rail Market: Market Positioning of Locomotives by Power Range, NA, 2015
13. Rail Market: Greenhouse Gas Emission by Sector, Europe, 2015
14. Rail Market: Specific CO2 Emissions per ton-km and by Mode of Transport, Europe, 2002–2011
15. Rail Market: PM versus NOx for Stage V Railcars and Locomotives, Europe, 2015
16. Rail Market: Number of Rolling Stock in Passenger Rail, US, 2015 and 2016
17. Rail Market: Number of Locomotives on Installed Base, US, 2015 and 2016
18. Rail Market: Heavy Rail Ridership Forecast, US, 2015–2025
19. Rail Market: Light Rail Ridership Forecast, US, 2015–2025
20. Rail Market: FRA Total Budget Requested, US, 2015
21. Rail Market: Class 1 Railroads Expected Investment, US, 2015
22. Rail Market: Annual Revenues of Class I Railroads, US, 2014
23. Rail Market: Annual Operating Expenses of Class I Railroads, US, 2012–2014
24. Rail Market: Forecast of Freight Transported by Rail, US, 2015 and 2022
25. Rail Market: Major Commodities Transported by Freight Rail, US, 2014
26. Rail Market: Type of Rail Freight Carried and Contribution to Gross Revenue, US, 2014
27. Rail Market: Freight Rail Traffic Growth, US, 2014*
28. Rail Market: Trailer-on-flatcar/Container-on-flatcar Rail Intermodal Moves and Top 5 Intermodal Rail Terminals, US, 2013
29. Rail Market: Intermodal Rail Freight Traffic, US, 2014–2025
30. Rail Market: Cities with at Least 2 Intermodal Terminal Railroads that Operate Them, US, 2014
31. Rail Market: Investments to Haul Petrochemical Oil/ Gas by Rail by Shipper, US, 2015
32. Rail Market: Number of Wagons in Freight Rail, NA, 2014
33. Rail Market: Class 1 Locomotive Installed Base Market Share, US, 2015
34. Rail Market: Commuter Locomotive Installed Base Market Share, US, 2015
35. Rail Market: Distribution of Class 1 Locomotives by Power and by Age, US, 2015
36. Rail Market: Impact of Shale Gas on the Rail Environment, US, 2008–2040
37. Rail Market: LNG-compliant Engines, NA, 2013–2020
38. Rail Market: Total Funding for Infrastructure Projects, EU27, 2015
39. Rail Market: Estimated Available Funding for Infrastructure Projects, EU27, 2015–2022
40. Rail Market: Rail Freight Traffic Volumes and Movement, Europe, 2013
41. Rail Market: Market Share of Freight Carried, Western Europe, 2014
42. Rail Market: Market Share of Freight Carried, Eastern Europe, 2014
43. Rail Market: Major Commodities Transported by Freight Rail, EU27, 2014
44. Rail Market: Estimated Wagons in Active Service, EU27, 2015
45. Rail Market: Estimated Wagons under Management, EU27, 2015
46. Rail Market: Rolling Stock in Active Service by Type and Application, EU27, 2015
47. Rail Market: Rolling Stock in Active Service by Type and Age, EU27, 2015
48. Rail Market: Rolling Forecast of New Rolling Stock Deliveries by Type, EU27, 2015–2022
49. Rail Market: Share of Delivered Diesel Locomotives in Last 10 Years, EU27, 2005–2015
50. Rail Market: Share of Delivered Electric Locomotives in Last 10 Years, EU27, 2005–2015
51. Rail Market: Share of Delivered Diesel MUs in Last 10 years, EU27, 2005–2015
52. Rail Market: Share of Delivered Electric MUs in Last 10 years, EU27, 2005–2015
53. Rail Market: Overview of Spending in Railways, India, 2015–2019
54. Rail Market: Planned Investment in Urban Rail Systems, India, 2015
55. Rail Market: Planned Investment in HSR Systems by Region, India, 2015
56. Rail Market: Rail Freight Volumes, South Africa, 2015–2022
57. Rail Market: Rail Freight Market Share, South Africa, 2015
58. Rail Market: 7-year Investment Strategy of Transnet, South Africa, 2015–2022
59. Rail Market: Number of Freight Rolling Stock Deliveries, South Africa, 2015–2021
60. Rail Market: Simplified Schematic of Rail Telematics for Intermodal Freight, Global, 2016
61. Rail Market: Size and Types of Data, Global, 2016
62. Rail Market: Future of Logistics–Impact of Mega Trends, Global, 2020 and 2025
63. Rail Market: Smart Cities, Global, 2025
64. Rail Market: Smart City Market by Segment*, Global, 2020



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