Transformative Macroeconomic Trends that will Alter the Investor Environment in the United Kingdom

Transformative Macroeconomic Trends that will Alter the Investor Environment in the United Kingdom

Full Post-Covid-19 GDP Recovery by Q1 2022

RELEASE DATE
25-Aug-2020
REGION
Europe
Research Code: 9AE5-00-2D-00-00
SKU: CI00717-EU-MT_24665
$2,450.00
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CI00717-EU-MT_24665
$2,450.00
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Description

Covid-19 has catapulted the UK economy into further uncertainty, adding to the volatility already caused by Brexit. The next few months will be critical to the UK's economic recovery, as the country emerges from lockdown, and finalizes its post-transition trading relationship with the EU. This research service has been designed to help clients develop visioning scenarios and gain deeper insights into the general macroeconomic conditions in the UK. The research has been divided into four sections: macroeconomic outlook for the UK; the impact of COVID-19 on the macroeconomic outlook; the impact of Brexit on the macroeconomic outlook; and industry outlook.

The GDP growth trajectory for the UK has been assessed under the scenarios of both a first and a second wave of COVID-19. The standard model assumes that there is no second Covid-19 wave, with a no-deal Brexit being avoided.

A full recovery to pre-COVID-19 GDP levels is expected by Q1 2022. The growth prospects for 2023 to 2025 are more positive. The elimination of all Brexit-related uncertainty by this timeframe and expectations of strong government reforms in a post-Brexit world should help drive growth. COVID-19 and Brexit and their resultant disruptions to trade and supply chains should drive a shift away from just-in-time manufacturing while encouraging higher domestic production.

The recent rejection of the Brexit transition extension has created more uncertainty in recent weeks. The UK is now expected to most definitely exit the Brexit transition period by 31 December 2020 and enter into a new trading and migration relationship with the EU starting January 2021 (closer to November 2020, however, there is still the slim possibility of the UK could seeking an extended transition period again, especially if sufficient progress is not made in UK-EU trade negotiations).

Key industries analyzed as part of this research include the automotive, healthcare, and financial services industries. COVID-19 is expected to prompt near-medium-term shifts, such as stronger demand for used cars and increased private healthcare contracting. A significant part of the research also focuses on identifying key growth opportunities amid the ongoing volatility. In terms of growth opportunities, timeline-to-action, call-to-action, and impact groups have been analyzed.

Key Issues Addressed

  • What is the UK’s GDP growth outlook if a second COVID-19 wave unfolds?
  • What is the outlook for trade and supply chains, in the light of challenges posed by Brexit and COVID-19?
  • What is expected of Brexit in 2020 and beyond?
  • What is the outlook for UK-EU trade after the Brexit transition period?
  • How are EU- and non-EU immigration to the UK expected to evolve?
  • What are some of the key growth opportunities that businesses could look to tap into, despite the COVID-19 and Brexit volatility?
  • What is the likelihood of customs checks on UK-EU automotive trade?
  • How could a UK-US trade deal affect the NHS?
  • What is the outlook for a financial services equivalence model?
  • How will the accelerated shift to a digital payments economy impact the UK?

Auhtor: Neha Anna Thomas

Table of Contents

Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?

The Strategic Imperative 8™

The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Macroeconomic Environment in the United Kingdom

Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Glossary

UK Macroeconomic Environment—An Overview

Key Growth Metrics for the Macroeconomic Environment in the United Kingdom

Growth Drivers for the Macroeconomic Environment in the United Kingdom

Growth Restraints for the Macroeconomic Environment in the United Kingdom

Forecast Assumptions for the Macroeconomic Environment in the United Kingdom

Economic Trends and Predictions

GDP Growth Outlook

Global Trade and Supply Chain Relations

Global Trade and Supply Chain Relations (continued)

Positioning on Global Performance Indices

Population Age Structure Analysis

GDP Growth

Inflation and Interest Rates

Stimulus Measures and Expectations

New-Normal Business Models

Historical Shocks VS. COVID-19 Expectations

Key Timelines

Post-Transition UK-EU Relations

Immigration Impact

Automotive Industry—Macroeconomic Impact

Automotive Industry—Impact Analysis Matrix

Healthcare Industry—Macroeconomic Impact

Healthcare Industry—Impact Analysis Matrix

Financial Services Industry—Macroeconomic Impact

Financial Services Industry—Impact Analysis Matrix

Growth Opportunity 1: Domestic Production Opportunities Amidst COVID-19 and Brexit

Growth Opportunity 1: Domestic Production Opportunities Amidst COVID-19 and Brexit (continued)

Growth Opportunity 2: Leveraging Prolonged Low-Interest Rate Environment for Post-COVID Bounce Back

Growth Opportunity 2: Leveraging Prolonged Low-Interest Rate Environment for Post-COVID Bounce Back (continued)

Growth Opportunity 3: Used Car Sales Boost from COVID-19

Growth Opportunity 3: Used Car Sales Boost from COVID-19 (continued)

Growth Opportunity 4: Contract Opportunities for the Private Healthcare Sector

Growth Opportunity 4: Contract Opportunities for the Private Healthcare Sector (continued)

Growth Opportunity 5: Shift Toward Cashless Society and Associated Digital Payment Opportunities

Growth Opportunity 5: Shift Toward Cashless Society and Associated Digital Payment Opportunities (continued)

A Snapshot of Key Growth Opportunities

A Snapshot of Key Growth Opportunities (continued)

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

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Related Research
Covid-19 has catapulted the UK economy into further uncertainty, adding to the volatility already caused by Brexit. The next few months will be critical to the UK's economic recovery, as the country emerges from lockdown, and finalizes its post-transition trading relationship with the EU. This research service has been designed to help clients develop visioning scenarios and gain deeper insights into the general macroeconomic conditions in the UK. The research has been divided into four sections: macroeconomic outlook for the UK; the impact of COVID-19 on the macroeconomic outlook; the impact of Brexit on the macroeconomic outlook; and industry outlook. The GDP growth trajectory for the UK has been assessed under the scenarios of both a first and a second wave of COVID-19. The standard model assumes that there is no second Covid-19 wave, with a no-deal Brexit being avoided. A full recovery to pre-COVID-19 GDP levels is expected by Q1 2022. The growth prospects for 2023 to 2025 are more positive. The elimination of all Brexit-related uncertainty by this timeframe and expectations of strong government reforms in a post-Brexit world should help drive growth. COVID-19 and Brexit and their resultant disruptions to trade and supply chains should drive a shift away from just-in-time manufacturing while encouraging higher domestic production. The recent rejection of the Brexit transition extension has created more uncertainty in recent weeks. The UK is now expected to most definitely exit the Brexit transition period by 31 December 2020 and enter into a new trading and migration relationship with the EU starting January 2021 (closer to November 2020, however, there is still the slim possibility of the UK could seeking an extended transition period again, especially if sufficient progress is not made in UK-EU trade negotiations). Key industries analyzed as part of this research include the automotive, healthcare, and financial services industries. COVID-19 is expected to prompt near-medium-term shifts, such as stronger demand for used cars and increased private healthcare contracting. A significant part of the research also focuses on identifying key growth opportunities amid the ongoing volatility. In terms of growth opportunities, timeline-to-action, call-to-action, and impact groups have been analyzed.--BEGIN PROMO--

Key Issues Addressed

  • What is the UK’s GDP growth outlook if a second COVID-19 wave unfolds?
  • What is the outlook for trade and supply chains, in the light of challenges posed by Brexit and COVID-19?
  • What is expected of Brexit in 2020 and beyond?
  • What is the outlook for UK-EU trade after the Brexit transition period?
  • How are EU- and non-EU immigration to the UK expected to evolve?
  • What are some of the key growth opportunities that businesses could look to tap into, despite the COVID-19 and Brexit volatility?
  • What is the likelihood of customs checks on UK-EU automotive trade?
  • How could a UK-US trade deal affect the NHS?
  • What is the outlook for a financial services equivalence model?
  • How will the accelerated shift to a digital payments economy impact the UK?

Auhtor: Neha Anna Thomas

More Information
No Index No
Podcast No
Author Neha Anna Thomas
Industries Cross Industries
WIP Number 9AE5-00-2D-00-00
Is Prebook No
GPS Codes 9A6B