Executive Analysis of Electric Truck Market, Forecast to 2025

Chinese Thrust to Propel Global Light-medium-heavy Duty Electric Truck Market to More than 2.5 Million Units in Annual Sales by 2025

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This study provides an overview of the opportunities in the global medium heavy-duty electric truck market in the period 2016–2025. The study reveals that the Chinese electric truck market will be the global electric medium heavy-duty truck leader and is expected to be dominated by fully electric trucks with 61.1% market share, followed by plug-in hybrid with 28.5% and hybrid with 10.4%, by 2025. New energy powertrain adoption is likely to increase, especially among medium-duty and heavy-duty trucks in China which is mainly dominated by new trucks models. The North American electric truck market is expected to be dominated by fully electric trucks with 53.3% market share, followed by plug-in hybrid with 30.7% and hybrid with 15.9%, by 2025. The new GHG emission regulations are pushing hard to achieve CO2 and fuel economy standards to satisfy EISA lead-time requirement. The European electric truck market is expected to be dominated by fully electric trucks with 54.6% market share, followed by plug-in hybrid with 37.4%, share and hybrid with 8.0%, by 2025. Several Western European countries are planning to adopt the ICE ban from 2025–2030, with expanding low-emission zones planning to ban diesel and gasoline engines.

List of market participants reviewed in the study include AVL, Allison, BAE Systems, BYD, BYD America, Brusa, Chanje, Charge, Daimler, Donfeng, E-Force, Eaton, Emerson, Ennova, Enride, FAW, Foton, Fuso, GINAF, GKN, Geely, Hino Motors, Hitachi, JAC, MAN, Mack Trucks, Medcom, Motiv Power, Nanjin IVECO, Nikola, Nissan, Remy, Renault, Scania, Shaanxi, Siemens, Smith Electric, TM4, Tesla, Toyota, Traktionssysteme, UQM Technologies, VIA, Volvo, ZF, eTraction and many more.

Research Highlights

Growing penetration of electric and hybrid powertrain technologies in commercial vehicles, especially within city limits, will drive the demand for new types of drivelines. eAxles and motors mounted adjacent to wheel hubs are new technologies that are gaining traction in heavy-duty trucking applications. Battery prices have decreased by about 50% since 2010 and are expected to further decrease by 50% in the next 4 to 6 years. In batteries, Lithium sulfur is likely to be adopted as the next battery chemistry; however, advancement in lithium-ion technology will be seen.

Key Issues Addressed

  • What are the current and future market trends of the electric truck market?
  • How will the market transform into by 2025 in terms of the geographic growth?
  • What will be the downstream implications for electric truck drivetrains in  trucks?
  • Which models are likely to be launched in the next 2 or 4 years?
  • What will be the technological and affordability trends of electric powertrain components like batteries, motors, and  charging systems?

Table of Contents

Executive SummaryKey TakeawaysResearch Scope and SegmentationResearch ScopeResearch Aims and ObjectivesKey Questions this Study will AnswerResearch BackgroundResearch MethodologyPartial List of Industries ComparedMarket OutlookElectric Truck Market Outlook of Key Regions—2025Chinese Electric Truck Market OverviewCase Study—Chinese Government NEV Development PlanElectric Powertrain—Purchase Incentive by Central GovernmentElectric Trucks—Purchase Incentive by Regional GovernmentElectric Powertrain—Key Influencing TrendsElectric Truck Portfolio of Key OEMsMarket Overview 2016—Powertrain Adoption in China Electric Powertrain Adoption Forecast in China, 2016–2025North American Electric Truck Market OverviewNational Truck Fuel economy and GHG Emissions North America NHTSA Fuel Consumption Standards North America Phase 1 and Phase 2 Combination Tractor and Trailer Standards Electric Powertrain—Truck Portfolio of Key OEMsMarket Overview 2016—Powertrain Adoption in North AmericaElectric Powertrain Adoption Forecast in North America: 2016–2025European Electric Truck Market OverviewUK, Italy, and Germany—Leading the Initiative with Low-Emission Zones City Urban Access Restriction in EU Making VMsEU GHG Emission Norms—Overview of Status Quo Vehicle Energy Consumption Calculation Tool (VECTO) Electric Truck Portfolio of Key OEMsElectric Truck Portfolio of Key OEMs (continued)Market Overview 2016—Powertrain Adoption in Europe Electric Powertrain Adoption Forecast in Europe, 2016–2025Electric Drivetrain and Downstream ImplicationsVarious Electric Driveline Configurations Impact of Electrification on AxlesImpact of Electrification on Wheel EndImpact of Electrification on BrakesBattery Market AnalysisFuture Battery Chemistries—Market Introduction RoadmapDecline in Battery Prices to Make EVs AffordableLithium-ion Battery Cost BreakdownCharging Infrastructure RequirementsDefinition of EV Charging Infrastructure AC Charging Plug and Connector TypeDC Charging Connector GeometryCHAdeMO ChargingCharging Interface Initiative (CHARIN)Growth Opportunities and Companies to ActionGrowth OpportunityStrategic Imperatives for Electric Vehicle MarketKey Conclusions and Future OutlookKey Conclusions and Future OutlookThe Last Word—3 Big PredictionsLegal DisclaimerAppendixMarket Engineering Methodology

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