Future of ASEAN, Forecast to 2025

Potential Contribution of the Integration of 10 SEA Nations to Regional Growth and New Opportunities across Sectors

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ASEAN’s GDP is forecast to increase from $2.4 Trillion in 2015 to $5.2 Trillion in 2025, largely due to the ongoing implementation of the AEC. This study examines the potential contributions of this integration to regional growth by analysing the impact of various Mega Trends and expanding on the predictions for each sector. It also analyses the new growth drivers and the areas of innovation most likely to seen in ASEAN until 2025. The study’s time frame is from 2015 to 2025.
ASEAN, at the current level of economic growth, is poised to become the fourth-largest market—after EU, US, and China—by 2030, supported by increased skilled workforce, abundant natural resources, and favourable geographic location for trade and commerce.
The huge regional economic integration of ASEAN would make ASEAN a single market and production base and create free movement of goods, services and labour like the European Union. This will boost the intra-regional trade both within ASEAN and among emerging Asia’s economies which will raise the economic growth levels.
Key Questions Addressed:
•     What are the major Mega Trends the region will see in the next 10 years?
•     What would be the impact of these Mega Trends on the economy and businesses of ASEAN?
•     How the integration of ASEAN economy will impact the economy and business of the region
•     What are the future prospects of this region that would lead to attract more global investments and market attention?
Key Features:
•     Extensive research covering 11 Mega Trends that would have the most significant impact on ASEAN
•     Each Mega Trend further divided into sub-trends to identify region-wise opportunities for investments in various sectors
•     A macro-to-micro analysis to understand the unmet needs or inherent business opportunities in relevant industries
Key Topics:
•     Implementation of the ASEAN Economic Community and its predicted effects of the economy of the region
•     The Top 10 companies in ASEAN, in several sectors, including finance, manufacturing, telecommunication, O&G, mining and food production
•     Economy and Trade: The expected growth in ASEAN economy as a result of regional integration, Foreign direct investment, foreign trade agreements, the forecast economic outlook of ASEAN nations until 2025
•     Manufacturing: Contribution of manufacturing to ASEAN’s economy, the shift of manufacturing interest from China to ASEAN, the changing face of manufacturing in ASEAN as a result of technological advances, the growth of the Greater Mekong Sub region
•     Digital trends: Connectivity in ASEAN, Internet economy, mobile economy, effects of an increasing digital population on businesses in ASEAN
•     Infrastructure: Infrastructure funds in ASEAN, airports, rail network, ports, energy infrastructure
•     Urbanization trends: Mega Cities, Mega Regions, Mega Corridors, and urbanization rate
•     Social Trends: Demographic trends, middle class growth, women empowerment, and income distribution, consumer expenditure
•     Future of energy: energy production and consumption, smart grids
•     Future of mobility: multi-modal transport system, drone delivery, port automation, electronic road pricing, ride sharing apps, electric vehicles
•     Future of Aviation: Open skies policy as a result of AEC, Airport traffic outlook, Aviation revenue
•     Health and wellness: ASEAN healthcare revenue growth, healthcare opportunities, healthcare policies, healthcare services disparity across the region, healthcare IT trends
Future of Governance: South China Sea dispute, eGovernance, Government budgets,
ASEAN, a collaboration of 10 Southeast Asian nations (Brunei Darussalam, Myanmar, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam), is one of the fastest growing regions in Asia. Its growth over the next 10 years is expected to be driven by Mega Trends in various sectors. It is imperative that business and organizations with interests in the region equip themselves fully with knowledge on the present landscape and forecast changes, particularly as a result of the ongoing regional economic integration initiatives.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
Top 10 Facts on the Future of ASEAN
Key Findings
The Frost & Sullivan ASEAN Index
Future of ASEAN—An Integrated Single Market
ASEAN Middle Class—363M people or 52% of the Population by 2025
Manufacturing—Expansion from China to ASEAN
Case Study—Singapore, ASEAN’s High-Value Manufacturing Capital
Connectivity in ASEAN
ASEAN Online Retail Sector to be Boosted by Increased Connectivity
Future of ASEAN Infrastructure
ASEAN Mega Regions—3 Mega Regions to Emerge in ASEAN by 2025
Social Trends—Population by Country
Future of Energy
Key Mobility Predictions for ASEAN, 2025
ASEAN Healthcare Policies & Business Opportunities
High Number of ASEAN FTAs to Accelerate Trade Growth
2. Research Scope, Objective, and Methodology
Research Scope
Research Aims and Objectives
Research Background
Research Methodology—From Macro to Micro
Definitions Used in the Study
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations
ASEAN Ranking Research Methodology
3. The ASEAN Top 10
The Frost & Sullivan ASEAN Index
Parameters Used in the Frost & Sullivan ASEAN Index
Top ASEAN Companies by 2015 Revenue in Each Sector
Top 10 ASEAN Finance Companies, 2016
Top 10 ASEAN Manufacturing Companies, 2016
Top 10 ASEAN Telecommunication Companies, 2016
Top 10 ASEAN Infrastructure Companies, 2016
Top 10 ASEAN O&G Companies, 2016
Top 10 ASEAN Mining Companies, 2016
Top 10 ASEAN Food Producers, 2016
Top 10 ASEAN Energy Companies, 2016
Top 10 ASEAN Transportation Companies, 2016
Top 10 ASEAN Healthcare Companies, 2016
Top 10 Fastest Growing ASEAN Sectors, 2015
Top 10 ASEAN Cities of the Future (2015—2025)
4. Economic Trends
Economic Trends—Highlights
2025 ASEAN Economic Dashboard
Future of the ASEAN Economy
2025 ASEAN Economic Outlook
ASEAN FDI Stock to be Worth $3.6 Trillion by 2025
ASEAN Economic Community—Timeline
High Number of ASEAN FTAs to Accelerate Trade Growth
ASEAN Member Nations in Negotiations for 3 Mega Regional FTAs
Implementation of AEC
Future of ASEAN Trade—Impact of AEC
5. Future of Manufacturing
Future of Manufacturing—Highlights
The Diverse Manufacturing Hotspots of ASEAN
Contribution of Manufacturing to ASEAN Economy
The Changing Face of Manufacturing in ASEAN
Future of Manufacturing in ASEAN
Shift in Manufacturing Focus from China to ASEAN
Manufacturing Expansion from China to ASEAN
The Greater Mekong Subregion
Future of ASEAN Manufacturing
Future of ASEAN
Key Challenges for ASEAN Manufacturers in 2025
Case Study—Thailand, the ASEAN Hub of Automotive Manufacturing
Case Study—Singapore, ASEAN’s High-Value Manufacturing Capital
ASEAN Food and Beverage Manufacturing
Future of ASEAN Manufacturing—Opportunities
6. Digital Trends
Digital Trends—Highlights
Connectivity in ASEAN
Digital Trends—Social Media in ASEAN
Future of ASEAN Connectivity
ASEAN Online Retail Sector to be Boosted by Increased Connectivity
Connectivity in ASEAN
ASEAN Online Retail Opportunities
ASEAN Retail Sector
ASEAN Online Retail Platforms
7. Future of Infrastructure
Future of Infrastructure—Highlights
ASEAN Infrastructure Investment
ASEAN Infrastructure Fund (AIF)
Future of ASEAN Infrastructure
ASEAN Land Transportation Infrastructure Development
ASEAN Infrastructure—Maritime
ASEAN Energy Infrastructure Development until 2025
Trans-ASEAN Regional Gas Grid
Future of ASEAN Infrastructure—Rail Network
ASEAN Infrastructure—Airports
Green Buildings Market Dynamics
8. Urbanization Trends
Urbanization Trends—Highlights
Main Trends in Urbanization
ASEAN Mega Cities—Five Mega Cities to Emerge in ASEAN by 2025
Fastest Growing ASEAN Cities
Mega City Case Study—Jakarta
ASEAN Mega Regions—3 Mega Regions to Emerge in ASEAN by 2025
Mega City Case Study—Malaysia
ASEAN Smart and Sustainable Cities
Case Study—Iskandar Smart City
ASEAN Mega Corridors
Elements of ASEAN Smart Cities
Singapore—An Aspirational Asian Smart City
Smart Traffic Management in Manila, Philippines
Urbanization Trends—Implications
9. Social Trends
Social Trends—Highlights
ASEAN’s Population Predicted to Reach 697 Million by 2025
Social Trends—Population Growth By Country
Social Trends—Gen Y Population by Country
Social Trends—Labor Pool
Social Trends—Job Opportunities
ASEAN Middle Class—363M People or 52% of the Population by 2025
Future of ASEAN Retail—Consumer Trends
Population— Other Indicators
Social Trends—Gender Gap
Social Trends—Female Work Participation
Future of ASEAN—Gender Equality
10. Future of Energy
Future of Energy—Highlights
ASEAN Energy Landscape
Future of Energy
ASEAN Energy in the Age of Gas
LNG and Regasification Case Study—Indonesia
LNG and Regasification Case Study—Malaysia
Smart Grid Case Study—Putrajaya and Malacca in Malaysia
Tenaga Nasional Smart Meter Technology Roadmap
Future of ASEAN Smart Markets
11. Future of Mobility
Future of Mobility—Highlights
Key Mobility Predictions for ASEAN, 2025
Application of Technology to Ease Road Congestions in ASEAN Cities
Increasing Popularity of Mobile Apps for Transport in ASEAN
Future of Mobility—Automation
Future of Mobility—Urban Transportation
Future of Mobility—Multimodal Transport Options
Multi Modal Transport Options in Major ASEAN cities
Future of Mobility—Electric Vehicles
12. Future of Aviation
Future of Aviation—Highlights
ASEAN Aviation—Airport Traffic Outlook
Future of ASEAN Aviation
Future of ASEAN Aviation—Drivers
13. Health and Wellness
Health and Wellness—Highlights
ASEAN Healthcare Landscape
ASEAN Healthcare Services—Disparity Among Countries
ASEAN Healthcare Policies & Business Opportunities
ASEAN Healthcare Markets—Growth Forecast
ASEAN Healthcare—Market Trends
Future of ASEAN Healthcare—Impact of AEC on Healthcare
Future of ASEAN Healthcare—Areas of Opportunities
Key Trends in Healthcare Technologies
Mega Trends Impacting Growth of Healthcare IT in APAC
Future of ASEAN Healthcare—Remote Patient Monitoring
Future of ASEAN Healthcare—Aged Care
Future of ASEAN Healthcare—Medical Devices
Future of ASEAN Healthcare—Opportunities
Universal Health Coverage Roadmap in Select ASEAN Countries
Case Study—Integrated Health Information System, Singapore
14. Future of Governance
South China Sea Dispute a Test of Unity for ASEAN
eGovernance—the Key to Transparency in ASEAN Nations
Very Slight Increases Forecast in ASEAN Government Budgets
15. Future of ASEAN (In Summary)
Future of ASEAN—An Integrated Single Market
Full Implementation of AEC to Boost ASEAN Economic Growth
ASEAN to Become the World’s Next Factory Floor
Growing Number of ASEAN Netizens to Drive Online Retail Growth
Advancements in ASEAN Infrastructure to Support AEC Integration
ASEAN Food and Beverage Market to Develop New Tastes
High Urbanization Rates to Drive ASEAN Population to Cities
Increased Consumption by the Middle Class to Boost Retail Sales
Gas to Become ASEAN’s Main Energy Source
Higher Demand for Intra-ASEAN Travel due to AEC
Evolution of Healthcare Services to Meet the Needs of the Bulging Middle Class
Legal Disclaimer
16. The Frost & Sullivan Story


List of Figures & Charts

1. Case Studies of Major Manufacturer’s Shift from China to ASEAN
2. Manufacturing Costs in Singapore, 2025
3. Key Digital Indicators, ASEAN, 2015
4. Top Product Categories in online retail (% of total retail of the product), ASEAN, 2025
5. Mega Regions and Potential Mega Regions, ASEAN, 2025
6. Gen Y Population by Country, ASEAN, 2025
7. Healthcare Policies & Business Opportunities, ASEAN, 2015–2025
8. ASEAN FTAs in Effect, 2015
9. Nominal GDP, ASEAN, 2015–2025 ($ Billion)
10. Drivers of Economic Growth, ASEAN, 2016–2025
11. Top 5 FDI Inflow, ASEAN, 2015
12. AEC Implementation Timeline, ASEAN, 2003–2030
13. Pending Mega-Regional Trade Agreement Trade Flows, Global, 2015
14. Manufacturing Hotspots, ASEAN, 2015
15. Average Industrial Land Price, ASEAN, 2015 (per sqm)
16. Average Office Rent, ASEAN, 2015 (per sqm)
17. Top Exports (% of total imports), GMS, 2005–2014
18. Key Challenges in Manufacturing, ASEAN, 2015–2025
19. Automotive Industry, Thailand, 2015
20. Manufacturing Costs in Singapore, 2025
21. Connectivity infrastructure, ASEAN, 2025
22. Major Maritime Ports, ASEAN, 2025
23. Trends in Maritime Infrastructure, ASEAN, 2015–2025
24. Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC), ASEAN, 2016–2025
25. Regional Gas Grid, ASEAN, 2015–2025
26. Rail Network, ASEAN, 2025
27. Airport Infrastructure Developments, ASEAN, 2025
28. Mega Cities, ASEAN, 2025
29. Fastest Growing Second-Tier Cities, ASEAN, 2015–2025
30. Mega Cities, Indonesia, 2025
31. Mega Regions and Potential Mega Regions, ASEAN, 2025
32. Urbanisation and the Emergence of Mega Cities and Mega Regions, Malaysia, 2025
33. Smart and Sustainable Cities, ASEAN, 2025
34. Mega Corridors and Transportation Corridors, ASEAN, 2025
35. Other Population Indicators, ASEAN, 2015
36. Social trends, ASEAN, 2015–2025
37. Women’s Empowerment, ASEAN, 2015–2025
38. Gender Equality—Opportunities and Barriers, ASEAN, 2015–2025
39. Energy Predictions, ASEAN, 2015–2025
40. LNG and Regasification Projects, ASEAN, 2015–2025
41. LNG Liquefaction and Regasification Projects, Malaysia, 2015–2025
42. Integrated Urban Transport, ASEAN, 2025
43. Transport Options, ASEAN, 2015
44. Electric Vehicle Trends, ASEAN, 2014–2020
45. Airport Traffic Outlook, ASEAN, 2015–2025
46. Drivers of the Aviation Industry, ASEAN, 2016–2025
47. Healthcare Policies & Business Opportunities, ASEAN, 2015–2025
48. AEC Market Impact, ASEAN, 2015–2025
49. Opportunities in Healthcare, ASEAN, 2015–2025
50. Total Healthcare IT Market: Mega Trends Impacting Healthcare IT, APAC, 2015
51. Universal Health Coverage in Select ASEAN Countries, 2015

1. Middle Income Group Growth Analysis, ASEAN, China, India and LATAM, 2010 and 2025
2. Total Consumer Expenditure, ASEAN, 2015 and 2025
3. Internet Penetration Rate, ASEAN, 2025
4. Online Retail, ASEAN, 2015–2020
5. Gen Y Population (Million), ASEAN, 2015
6. Gen Y Population, ASEAN, 2025
7. Total Electricity Consumption, ASEAN, 2012–2020
8. Number of Concluded FTAs, ASEAN, 2014
9. Nominal GDP, ASEAN, 2015–2025 ($ Billion)
10. Top 5 Trade Partners, ASEAN, 2015, ($ Billion)
11. Trade as % of Global Trade, ASEAN, 2004–2025
12. GDP, ASEAN, 2015, 2020, and 2025
13. Estimated Time Required to Become High-Income Countries, ASEAN
14. Contributions to Additional GDP Growth due to AEC, ASEAN, 2025 (% of GDP)
15. FDI Stock, ASEAN, 2000–2030
16. Intra-ASEAN FDI Inflow
17. Shares by Sector, 2014 (%)
18. Number of Concluded FTAs, ASEAN, 2014
19. Manufacturing Value as a % of GDP, ASEAN, 2014
20. Employment in Each Subsector of Manufacturing, Select ASEAN Countries, 2014
21. GMS Merchandise Imports, Exports & Trade Balance, 2003–2025
22. FDI Flow, Greater Mekong Subregion, 2007–2025 ($ Million)
23. Quality of Trade-Related Infrastructure, ASEAN, 2007, 2014, and 2025
24. Cost to Export, ASEAN, 2005–2025
25. Time to Export, ASEAN, 2005–2025
26. GMS Intra-regional Trade Shares, ASEAN, 2010–2025
27. Automobile Production Capacity, Thailand, 2015
28. Rental Index of Industry Space, Singapore, 2013–2025
29. Packaged Food Retail, ASEAN, 2010–2025
30. Food Exports as a % of Total Exports, ASEAN, 2015
31. Social Media Users, ASEAN, 2015
32. Percentage of Netizens by Age Group, ASEAN, 2015
33. Average Internet Speed, ASEAN, 2015
34. Cost of Broadband as % of Gross Income, ASEAN 2014
35. Online Retail, ASEAN, 2015–2020
36. Retail Sales, Select ASEAN Countries, 2014–2025F
37. Infrastructure Investment Needs, ASEAN, 2025
38. Financing of AIF projects, ASEAN, 2012–2020
39. Building Construction Market Revenue Forecast, ASEAN, 2015–2020
40. Green Buildings Market: Opportunities Matrix, ASEAN, 2015–2025
41. Population by Age Group, ASEAN, 2015, 2025
42. Population by Country, ASEAN, 2025
43. Gen Y Population, ASEAN, 2015 (Million)
44. Gen Y Population, ASEAN, 2025 (Million)
45. Labor Force*, ASEAN, 2025
46. Change in Employment due to AEC, ASEAN, 2025
47. Changes in Wages with AEC Integration, ASEAN, 2025
48. Middle Income Group Growth Analysis, ASEAN, China, India and LATAM, 2010 and 2025
49. Total Consumer Expenditure, ASEAN, 2015 and 2025
50. Female Work Participation, ASEAN, 2015–2025
51. Share of Employment in Major Economic Sectors by Gender, ASEAN, 2015 and 2025
52. Total Electricity Consumption, ASEAN, 2012–2020
53. Installed Capacity, ASEAN, 2010–2025
54. Electric Generation Capacity, ASEAN, 2010–2025
55. % of Fossil & Carbon-free Power Generation, Global, 2030
56. Gas Production, Global, 2010–2025
57. Natural Gas Reserves, ASEAN, 2014
58. Smart Grid Market: Percent Revenue Forecast by Vertical Market, ASEAN, 2013–2019
59. Smart Grid Market: Sales by Country, ASEAN, 2014
60. Impact of Regional Integration on Renewable Energy, ASEAN, 2025
61. Future Mobility, ASEAN, 2025
62. Aviation Revenue, Southeast Asia, 2006–2025
63. Healthcare Market: Lifecycle Analysis by Nations, ASEAN, 2015
64. Country Indices, ASEAN, 2015
65. Private Hospital Service Market: Revenue, Select ASEAN Countries, 2014 and 2025
66. Healthcare Market Value, ASEAN, 2015 and 2025
67. Government Budgets, ASEAN, 2016 and 2020
68. Government Debt-to-GDP Ratio, ASEAN, 2014 and 2020




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