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By 2030, Collision Repair Revenue Could Potentially Decline by 32%
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The North American automotive landscape is witnessing steady change. Since 2010, vehicles have been seeing the increased presence of ADAS components. Autonomous technology is also seeing growing interest, and along with ADAS and autonomous cars, it comprises intelligent mobility. This trend will gain further traction once semi-autonomous vehicles garner momentum by the end of 2020, which will decrease the percent of non-ADAS vehicles in the total vehicle parc.The growing adoption of intelligent mobility from 2020 to 2030 will ensure fewer collisions and lesser repairs. This insight sheds light on the penetration of various levels of autonomous vehicles, forecasts the impact of adoption on the general aftermarket, the macro impact, and the impact on parts and maintenance trends, and offers a collision service market forecast. The key impact areas are eco driving, shared mobility, collision avoidance, congestion mitigation, connected maintenance, insurance incentives, and service complexity.
The insight focuses on 2 specific scenarios, namely:
The key areas of analysis under these scenarios are as follows:
Key Issues Addressed
The total number of ADAS-enabled and autonomous cars on the road is expected to increase from 9% of the total VIO in 2017 to 82% in 2030. The increased adoption of ADAS and autonomous vehicles will be due to the higher emphasis on safety and green technology . Regular wear items, such as tires and brake pads, are likely to record declining replacement rates .Maintenance trends are anticipated to evolve as these vehicles will require less but more advanced maintenance, such as over-the-air (OTA) updates.
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