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Impact of Autonomous Mobility on the North American Automotive Aftermarket, Forecast to 2030
Impact of Autonomous Mobility on the North American Automotive Aftermarket, Forecast to 2030
By 2030, Collision Repair Revenue Could Potentially Decline by 32%
16-Jan-2018
North America
Market Research
Description
The North American automotive landscape is witnessing steady change. Since 2010, vehicles have been seeing the increased presence of ADAS components. Autonomous technology is also seeing growing interest, and along with ADAS and autonomous cars, it comprises intelligent mobility. This trend will gain further traction once semi-autonomous vehicles garner momentum by the end of 2020, which will decrease the percent of non-ADAS vehicles in the total vehicle parc.
The growing adoption of intelligent mobility from 2020 to 2030 will ensure fewer collisions and lesser repairs. This insight sheds light on the penetration of various levels of autonomous vehicles, forecasts the impact of adoption on the general aftermarket, the macro impact, and the impact on parts and maintenance trends, and offers a collision service market forecast.
The key impact areas are eco driving, shared mobility, collision avoidance, congestion mitigation, connected maintenance, insurance incentives, and service complexity.
Research Highlights
The insight focuses on 2 specific scenarios, namely:
- Low adoption of ADAS/autonomous vehicles (intelligent mobility)
- High adoption of ADAS/autonomous vehicles (intelligent mobility)
Key Features
The key areas of analysis under these scenarios are as follows:
- Impact on the overall VIO and its impact on non-ADAS-enabled vehicles from 2017 to 2030
- Penetration of level 2 and level 3 autonomous vehicles along with ADAS-enabled vehicles from 2020 to 2030
- Overall collisions expected during the period under study
- Overall collision repair potential from 2017 to 2030 under the conservative adoption of intelligent mobility
- Total revenue potential from collision repairs
Key Issues Addressed
- What are the current and emerging trends in ADAS-enabled and autonomous vehicles? What are the likely adoption rates and the macro impact on the automotive aftermarket?
- What are the vehicle sales and VIO scenarios for ADAS-enabled and autonomous vehicles?
- What are the potential areas of impact on the US aftermarket – parts, maintenance trends, and collision?
- How will the collision service market be impacted in terms of revenue growth or decline by the introduction of autonomous mobility?
- What are the potential legislations and regulations that can drive or restrain the adoption of autonomous technology?
Key Conclusion
The total number of ADAS-enabled and autonomous cars on the road is expected to increase from 9% of the total VIO in 2017 to 82% in 2030. The increased adoption of ADAS and autonomous vehicles will be due to the higher emphasis on safety and green technology . Regular wear items, such as tires and brake pads, are likely to record declining replacement rates .Maintenance trends are anticipated to evolve as these vehicles will require less but more advanced maintenance, such as over-the-air (OTA) updates.
RESEARCH: INFOGRAPHIC
This infographic presents a brief overview of the research, and highlights the key topics discussed in it.Click image to view it in full size
Table of Contents
Key Findings
Autonomous Mobility—Macro Impact on Vehicle Maintenance
Impact of Collision on the Repair Industry—Revenue Potential
Revenue Impact due to the Conservative Adoption of Intelligent Mobility
Revenue Impact due to the Optimistic Adoption of Intelligent Mobility
Research Scope
Research Aims and Objectives
Key Questions this Study will Answer
Research Background
Research Methodology
Market Definitions
Vehicle Segmentation
ADAS/Autonomous Vehicles—SAE Definitions
Autonomous Cars—Definition and Capability Framework
ADAS Technology—Proliferation of Sensors and Capabilities
Autonomous Mobility—Industry and Technology Drivers
Autonomous Mobility—Impact on Overall Driving/Ownership Dynamics
Impact of Autonomous Mobility on Industry Stakeholders
ADAS & Autonomous Cars Sales—Optimistic & Conservative Forecast
Intelligent Mobility and Its Impact on VIO—Low Adoption Outlook
Intelligent Mobility and Its Impact on VIO—High Adoption Outlook
Impact on Key Replacement Parts
Collision—Impact on the Automotive Industry
Collision Service Market Forecast Assumptions
Impact of Collision on the Repair Industry—Revenue Potential
Revenue Impact on Collision (Low ADAS/Autonomous Adoption)
Revenue Impact on Collision (High ADAS/Autonomous Adoption)
Growth Opportunity—Improve R&D and Supply of Sensor-based Components
Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth
The Last Word—3 Big Predictions
Legal Disclaimer
List of Exhibits
List of Exhibits (continued)
Startups Enabling Autonomous Mobility, Global
Startups Enabling Autonomous Mobility, Global (continued)
Startups Enabling Autonomous Mobility, Global (continued)
Abbreviations and Acronyms Used
The Frost & Sullivan Story
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Global Perspective
Industry Convergence
360º Research Perspective
Implementation Excellence
Our Blue Ocean Strategy
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A tailored session with you where we identify the:- Strategic Imperatives
- Growth Opportunities
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Impacting your company's future growth potential.
Research Highlights
The insight focuses on 2 specific scenarios, namely:
- Low adoption of ADAS/autonomous vehicles (intelligent mobility)
- High adoption of ADAS/autonomous vehicles (intelligent mobility)
Key Features
The key areas of analysis under these scenarios are as follows:
- Impact on the overall VIO and its impact on non-ADAS-enabled vehicles from 2017 to 2030
- Penetration of level 2 and level 3 autonomous vehicles along with ADAS-enabled vehicles from 2020 to 2030
- Overall collisions expected during the period under study
- Overall collision repair potential from 2017 to 2030 under the conservative adoption of intelligent mobility
- Total revenue potential from collision repairs
Key Issues Addressed
- What are the current and emerging trends in ADAS-enabled and autonomous ve
| Deliverable Type | Market Research |
|---|---|
| No Index | No |
| Podcast | No |
| Author | Benson Augustine |
| Industries | Automotive |
| WIP Number | 9AB2-00-AB-00-00 |
| Is Prebook | No |
| GPS Codes | 9800-A6,9801-A6,9832-A6,9AF6-A6,9B07-C1 |