Impact of Autonomous Mobility on the North American Automotive Aftermarket, Forecast to 2030

Impact of Autonomous Mobility on the North American Automotive Aftermarket, Forecast to 2030

By 2030, Collision Repair Revenue Could Potentially Decline by 32%

RELEASE DATE
16-Jan-2018
REGION
North America
Research Code: 9AB2-00-AB-00-00
SKU: AU01627-NA-MR_21423

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Description

The North American automotive landscape is witnessing steady change. Since 2010, vehicles have been seeing the increased presence of ADAS components. Autonomous technology is also seeing growing interest, and along with ADAS and autonomous cars, it comprises intelligent mobility. This trend will gain further traction once semi-autonomous vehicles garner momentum by the end of 2020, which will decrease the percent of non-ADAS vehicles in the total vehicle parc.

The growing adoption of intelligent mobility from 2020 to 2030 will ensure fewer collisions and lesser repairs. This insight sheds light on the penetration of various levels of autonomous vehicles, forecasts the impact of adoption on the general aftermarket, the macro impact, and the impact on parts and maintenance trends, and offers a collision service market forecast.

The key impact areas are eco driving, shared mobility, collision avoidance, congestion mitigation, connected maintenance, insurance incentives, and service complexity.


Research Highlights

The insight focuses on 2 specific scenarios, namely:

  • Low adoption of ADAS/autonomous vehicles (intelligent mobility)
  • High adoption of ADAS/autonomous vehicles (intelligent mobility)

Key Features

The key areas of analysis under these scenarios are as follows:

  • Impact on the overall VIO and its impact on non-ADAS-enabled vehicles from 2017 to 2030
  • Penetration of level 2 and level 3 autonomous vehicles along with ADAS-enabled vehicles from 2020 to 2030
  • Overall collisions expected during the period under study
  • Overall collision repair potential from 2017 to 2030 under the conservative adoption of intelligent mobility
  • Total revenue potential from collision repairs

Key Issues Addressed

  • What are the current and emerging trends in ADAS-enabled and autonomous vehicles? What are the likely adoption rates and the macro impact on the automotive aftermarket?
  • What are the vehicle sales and VIO scenarios for ADAS-enabled and autonomous vehicles?
  • What are the potential areas of impact on the US aftermarket – parts, maintenance trends, and collision?
  • How will the collision service market be impacted in terms of revenue growth or decline by the introduction of autonomous mobility?
  • What are the potential legislations and regulations that can drive or restrain the adoption of autonomous technology?

Key Conclusion

The total number of  ADAS-enabled and autonomous cars on the road is expected to increase from 9% of the total VIO in 2017 to 82% in 2030. The increased adoption of ADAS and autonomous vehicles will be due to the higher emphasis on safety and green technology . Regular wear items, such as tires and brake pads, are likely to record declining replacement rates .Maintenance trends are anticipated to evolve as these vehicles will require less but more advanced maintenance, such as over-the-air (OTA) updates.

RESEARCH: INFOGRAPHIC

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Table of Contents

Key Findings

Autonomous Mobility—Macro Impact on Vehicle Maintenance

Impact of Collision on the Repair Industry—Revenue Potential

Revenue Impact due to the Conservative Adoption of Intelligent Mobility

Revenue Impact due to the Optimistic Adoption of Intelligent Mobility

Research Scope

Research Aims and Objectives

Key Questions this Study will Answer

Research Background

Research Methodology

Market Definitions

Vehicle Segmentation

ADAS/Autonomous Vehicles—SAE Definitions

Autonomous Cars—Definition and Capability Framework

ADAS Technology—Proliferation of Sensors and Capabilities

Autonomous Mobility—Industry and Technology Drivers

Autonomous Mobility—Impact on Overall Driving/Ownership Dynamics

Impact of Autonomous Mobility on Industry Stakeholders

ADAS & Autonomous Cars Sales—Optimistic & Conservative Forecast

Intelligent Mobility and Its Impact on VIO—Low Adoption Outlook

Intelligent Mobility and Its Impact on VIO—High Adoption Outlook

Impact on Key Replacement Parts

Collision—Impact on the Automotive Industry

Collision Service Market Forecast Assumptions

Impact of Collision on the Repair Industry—Revenue Potential

Revenue Impact on Collision (Low ADAS/Autonomous Adoption)

Revenue Impact on Collision (High ADAS/Autonomous Adoption)

Growth Opportunity—Improve R&D and Supply of Sensor-based Components

Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth

The Last Word—3 Big Predictions

Legal Disclaimer

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

Startups Enabling Autonomous Mobility, Global

Startups Enabling Autonomous Mobility, Global (continued)

Startups Enabling Autonomous Mobility, Global (continued)

Abbreviations and Acronyms Used

The Frost & Sullivan Story

Value Proposition—Future of Your Company & Career

Global Perspective

Industry Convergence

360º Research Perspective

Implementation Excellence

Our Blue Ocean Strategy

The North American automotive landscape is witnessing steady change. Since 2010, vehicles have been seeing the increased presence of ADAS components. Autonomous technology is also seeing growing interest, and along with ADAS and autonomous cars, it comprises intelligent mobility. This trend will gain further traction once semi-autonomous vehicles garner momentum by the end of 2020, which will decrease the percent of non-ADAS vehicles in the total vehicle parc. The growing adoption of intelligent mobility from 2020 to 2030 will ensure fewer collisions and lesser repairs. This insight sheds light on the penetration of various levels of autonomous vehicles, forecasts the impact of adoption on the general aftermarket, the macro impact, and the impact on parts and maintenance trends, and offers a collision service market forecast. The key impact areas are eco driving, shared mobility, collision avoidance, congestion mitigation, connected maintenance, insurance incentives, and service complexity.--BEGIN PROMO--

Research Highlights

The insight focuses on 2 specific scenarios, namely:

  • Low adoption of ADAS/autonomous vehicles (intelligent mobility)
  • High adoption of ADAS/autonomous vehicles (intelligent mobility)

Key Features

The key areas of analysis under these scenarios are as follows:

  • Impact on the overall VIO and its impact on non-ADAS-enabled vehicles from 2017 to 2030
  • Penetration of level 2 and level 3 autonomous vehicles along with ADAS-enabled vehicles from 2020 to 2030
  • Overall collisions expected during the period under study
  • Overall collision repair potential from 2017 to 2030 under the conservative adoption of intelligent mobility
  • Total revenue potential from collision repairs

Key Issues Addressed

  • What are the current and emerging trends in ADAS-enabled and autonomous ve
More Information
No Index No
Podcast No
Author Benson Augustine
Industries Automotive
WIP Number 9AB2-00-AB-00-00
Is Prebook No
GPS Codes 9800-A6,9801-A6,9832-A6,9AF6-A6,9B07-C1