US-China Trade War—Global and Regional Impacts, Forecast to 2024

US-China Trade War—Global and Regional Impacts, Forecast to 2024

It is Predicted that the United States and China will Reach a Partial Deal Before the 2020 US Presidential Election

RELEASE DATE
30-Sep-2019
REGION
Asia Pacific
Research Code: 9AB7-00-0D-00-00
SKU: CI00651-AP-MR_23653

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Description

China’s swift economic growth and plans such as “Made in China 2025” have raised its competition with the United States. This situation has led to the US-China trade war with the United States imposing trade tariffs on Chinese products and China retaliating by imposing tariffs on US products. The trade war is slowing down the global economic and trade growth, increasing global policy uncertainty and shifting the global supply chain. The question here is how this ongoing trade war will affect the global and regional (Southeast Asia or SEA) economic growth? What will be the future of global trade?

With the onset of the trade war, the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies, do not import each other’s products as much as they used to before. As a result, their importations from other countries have increased substantially. These import substitutions have benefited other economies, especially those in SEA and Latin America. Questions here are how has the US-China trade war affected the economic and trade growth of SEA countries? Did it change their import and export patterns from the United States and China?

Companies in China, especially the tech giants, have either relocated or are considering relocation to other regions, particularly SEA, due to the ongoing trade war. These companies do not see any end to the trade war in the near future and have already lowered their earnings guidance. This has led to further questions: Which country is absorbing the flow of foreign direct investment (FDI) from China? What are the reasons behind it except skipping the US tariffs on Chinese products? The raise in the global uncertainty as a result of the US-China trade war and other events such as Brexit and the upcoming 2020 US presidential election has made investment decisions difficult for companies. Key questions here are what are the risk factors arising from the trade war, and how to manage these risks?

This research study is a comprehensive guideline of the US-China trade war for investors and decision makers. In addition to providing a timeline of the trade war highlighting and explaining the main events leading to the current dispute and explaining how this trade war began, this study answers all of the above-mentioned questions and also others—Will the United States and China compromise for the sake of higher efficiency? Are negotiations going to fail?—regarding the future of the trade war and if it is going to end anytime soon.

Key Issues Addressed

  • How the ongoing trade war will affect the global and regional (SEA) economic growth?
  • What will be the future of global trade?
  • Did the trade war change SEA imports and exports patterns from the United States and China?
  • What are the risk factors arising from this trade war? How to manage these risks?
  • What will be the future of the US-China trade war?

Table of Contents

Key Findings

Impact of Trade War

CEO’s Perspective

Market Definitions

Global GDP—Share of the United States, China and SEA

GDP Per Capita—United States, China and East Asia & Pacific

Economic Growth—Global, United States and China

Timeline—Battles 1 and 2

Timeline—Battle 2

Timeline—Battle 3

Timeline—Battle 3 (continued)

Battle 1 Explained

Battle 2 Explained

Battle 2 Explained (continued)

Battle 3 Explained

Battle 3 Explained (continued)

Made in China 2025—The Plan

Made in China 2025—The Consequences

Made in China 2025—The Consequences (continued)

Made in China 2025—The Consequences (continued)

Global Economic Impact—Economic Growth

Global Economic Impact—Trade

Global Economic Impact—Trade (continued)

Global Economic Impact—Exports

Global Economic Impact—Imports

Global Economic Impact—US’s Import Substitutions

Global Economic Impact—China’s Import Substitutions

Global Economic Impact—Policy Uncertainty

Global Economic Impact—Policy Uncertainty (continued)

Regional Impact—Economic Growth

Regional Impact—Exports to the United States

Regional Impact—Exports to China

Regional Impact—Imports from the United States

Regional Impact—Imports from China

Most Affected Industries—Technology

Most Affected Industries—Technology (continued)

Most Affected Industries—Technology (continued)

Most Affected Industries—Agriculture

Most Affected Industries—Solar Panel

US-China Trade War—Winners and Losers

United States—Winner or Loser?

United States—Winner or Loser? (continued)

The Case of Huawei

The Case of Huawei (continued)

Chinese Companies Are Relocating

Chinese Companies Are Relocating (continued)

Chinese Companies Are Relocating (continued)

Risk Factors Arising from the Trade War

Risk Factors Arising from the Trade War (continued)

How to Manage Risks Arising from this Conflict?

How to Manage Risks Arising from this Conflict? (continued)

Future of the US-China Trade War

Future of the US-China Trade War (continued)

Future of the US-China Trade War (continued)

Growth Opportunity 1—Investments Opportunities

Growth Opportunity 2—Geographical Expansion

Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth

Concluding Remarks

Legal Disclaimer

Key Source Documents

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

The Frost & Sullivan Story

Value Proposition—Future of Your Company & Career

Global Perspective

Industry Convergence

360º Research Perspective

Implementation Excellence

Our Blue Ocean Strategy

Related Research
China’s swift economic growth and plans such as “Made in China 2025” have raised its competition with the United States. This situation has led to the US-China trade war with the United States imposing trade tariffs on Chinese products and China retaliating by imposing tariffs on US products. The trade war is slowing down the global economic and trade growth, increasing global policy uncertainty and shifting the global supply chain. The question here is how this ongoing trade war will affect the global and regional (Southeast Asia or SEA) economic growth? What will be the future of global trade? With the onset of the trade war, the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies, do not import each other’s products as much as they used to before. As a result, their importations from other countries have increased substantially. These import substitutions have benefited other economies, especially those in SEA and Latin America. Questions here are how has the US-China trade war affected the economic and trade growth of SEA countries? Did it change their import and export patterns from the United States and China? Companies in China, especially the tech giants, have either relocated or are considering relocation to other regions, particularly SEA, due to the ongoing trade war. These companies do not see any end to the trade war in the near future and have already lowered their earnings guidance. This has led to further questions: Which country is absorbing the flow of foreign direct investment (FDI) from China? What are the reasons behind it except skipping the US tariffs on Chinese products? The raise in the global uncertainty as a result of the US-China trade war and other events such as Brexit and the upcoming 2020 US presidential election has made investment decisions difficult for companies. Key questions here are what are the risk factors arising from the trade war, and how to manage these risks? This research study is a comprehensive guideline of the US-China trade war for investors and decision makers. In addition to providing a timeline of the trade war highlighting and explaining the main events leading to the current dispute and explaining how this trade war began, this study answers all of the above-mentioned questions and also others—Will the United States and China compromise for the sake of higher efficiency? Are negotiations going to fail?—regarding the future of the trade war and if it is going to end anytime soon.--BEGIN PROMO--

Key Issues Addressed

  • How the ongoing trade war will affect the global and regional (SEA) economic growth?
  • What will be the future of global trade?
  • Did the trade war change SEA imports and exports patterns from the United States and China?
  • What are the risk factors arising from this trade war? How to manage these risks?
  • What will be the future of the US-China trade war?
More Information
No Index No
Podcast No
Author Fatemeh Dehdar
Industries Cross Industries
WIP Number 9AB7-00-0D-00-00
Is Prebook No
GPS Codes 9100-A2,9869-A2,9985-A2,9A74-A2,9595